U.S.-Turkey Cooperative Research: Analysis of Accident Risks in Narrow Waterways: The Case of Istanbul Channel

项目描述：该项目支持新泽西州新不伦瑞克市罗格斯大学工业与系统工程系Tayfur Altiok博士和土耳其伊斯坦布尔Bogazici大学工业工程系Ilhan Or博士的合作研究。pi将开发一个贝叶斯风险评估模型，用于分析海上事故情景。虽然该模型的使用将以博斯普鲁斯海峡为例进行演示，但其框架将适用于其他水道的事故概率评估，并可能也适用于其他运输方式。船舶类别和到达模式内的自相关性的结合推进了MTS模拟的最新技术，看到这些依赖关系对海上事故风险评估的影响将是非常有趣的。该框架将扩展到多个目标，并将包括经济和安全目标作为框架的一部分。pi计划通过检查该地区每年发生的数百起事故来考虑该地区可用的事故数据量，使用模拟来给出情况的频率，并使用数据来估计这些情况下事故的概率。这将有助于定义所考虑的许多参数之间的关系。该团队非常有资格开展该项目，土耳其PI已经在该地区开展了工作，并已经开发了模拟模型。pi将考虑结果对密西西比河和休斯顿航道的适用性。建议的活动有何更广泛的影响？博斯普鲁斯海峡是一条独特的水道。它是国际性的，但完全是在土耳其境内发生的。它穿过一个人口密度很高的地区，但它本身就是几个国家的生命线，这些国家需要利用它进行对外贸易。它已越来越多地用于运输石油，船舶和其他危险材料货物。这项研究应该是航运业和港口业非常有价值的基础，它提供了基本的方法，可以与单个水道的独特数据一起使用，以尽量减少风险。这项技术也可以应用于国土安全问题。这可能是一个丰富的学习环境。博斯普鲁斯海峡的模拟将对许多教师和学生非常有吸引力。

0423262 AltiokDescription: This project supports a collaborative research between Dr. Tayfur Altiok, Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and Dr. Ilhan Or, Industrial Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey. The PIs are to develop a Bayesian risk assessment model for analyzing maritime accident scenarios. While the use of the model will be demonstrated using the Bosporus as an example, its framework will be applicable to accident probability assessment in other waterways and potentially also cross into other transportation modes as well. The incorporation of autocorrelations within vessel classes and arrival patterns advances the state of the art in MTS simulations and it would be of great interest to see the effect of these dependencies on the assessment of maritime accident risk. The framework would be extended to multiple objectives and would include economic and security objectives as part of the framework. The PIs plan to consider the amount of accident data available for this region by examining the hundreds of accidents a year in this region, using a simulation to give the frequency of situations and using the data to estimate the probabilities of accidents in these situations. This will help define relationships among the many parameters considered. The team is very well qualified to conduct this project and the Turkish PI has already done work in this region and has a simulation model already developed. The PIs will consider the applicability of the results to the Mississippi and the Houston Ship Channel. What are the broader impacts of the proposed activity? The Bosporus is a unique waterway. It is international, yet fully passing within Turkey. It passes through an area of high population density and yet is itself a lifeline to several countries that need to use it for their foreign commerce. It has been increasingly used for transport of oil shipping and for other hazard materials cargo. This research should be very valuable groundwork for the shipping industry and the port industry by providing basic methodology that can be used with unique data for individual waterways to minimize risk. The technology can also be translated into homeland security issues as well. It is likely to be a rich learning environment. The simulation of the Bosporus would be very appealing to many instructors and students.