Developing an Understanding and Predictive Capability of the Interconnections Among Arctic Terrestrial, Atmospheric, and Marine Systems

摘要北极生态系统既与地球北极系统(陆地、海洋和大气)紧密相连，又对全球变暖和气候变化的影响高度敏感。最近的研究表明，温室气体增加导致的最显著的气温上升预计将发生在北极地区。由于陆地、海洋和大气系统有着千丝万缕的联系，因此在全球变化的背景下评估这种相互作用以及这种变化产生的影响是很重要的。基于这些系统之间的多个正反馈，扩大综合影响的潜力将在区域和全球范围内相关。解决拟议研究的智力价值的三个科学目标是：(1)估计海洋和大气系统内的可变性对陆地、大气和海洋之间的气体(包括二氧化碳和水蒸气)和非气体(颗粒和溶解有机物、营养物质和水)物质和能量的陆地通量的历史和未来影响；(2)评估辐射、气候、海洋环流、海洋温度、海冰位置和范围的变化对陆地过程的影响，包括对大气和海洋过程有反馈的那些；和(3)提供与陆地和海洋过程的模式和控制有关的高分辨率产品(大气、冰、海洋和陆地)和相关数据集，用于未来的分析。实现这些目标的方法是：(A)使用区域大气模式，极地M5，以产生阿拉斯加北坡的高分辨率大气数据；(B)确定和利用天空之箭飞机和涡旋协方差塔网的碳通量速率和气象状态，以获得碳平衡的区域估计，并验证区域模拟；(C)利用卫星监测，利用AVHRR和MODIS量化北极植被结构、生产力和景观冻融状态的空间模式和时间变异性；(D)利用BIOME-BGC和RHESSys陆地碳和水文生态系统模型模拟，在研究范围内的空间尺度和范围内对每日碳、水和氮收支进行详细的现场模拟；(E)利用高分辨率、区域耦合的冰-海模式来评估海冰范围和海洋过程；和(F)利用基于物理的、空间分布的水文模型来评估流域尺度上的水文过程，提供关于地貌单元内部和之间的水分动态的信息，以便评估流域尺度上的综合水文反应，以便对照土壤湿度的测量加以核实，并检查由此产生的影响，如地下水流量、河流流量和生物地球化学过程。这些基于计算机的显示器将是交互式的，并将被战略性地放置在与当地原住民、北极游客和巴罗和圣地亚哥县的K-12学生相关的地区。这些展示会将北极全球变化研究的讨论与目前参与全球变化研究的其他区域结合起来；以及(5)开发供巴罗K-8教室、北坡其他地方和“外面”使用的材料。这些材料将帮助学生理解北极系统在全球变化中的重要性。

AbstractArctic ecosystems are both tightly linked to the earth arctic systems (land, ocean, and atmosphere) and are highly sensitive to the effects of global warming and climate change. Recent studies indicate that the most significant rise in temperature resulting from increased greenhouse gases is anticipated to occur within the Arctic. Because the land, sea, and atmospheric systems are inextricably linked, it is important to assess this interaction within the context of global change and the resultant impacts of such change. The potential for amplification of resultant impacts, based on multiple positive feedbacks between these systems, will be relevant at regional as well as global scales.The three scientific goals that address the intellectual merit of the proposed research are to (1) Estimate the historic and future impacts of variability within the ocean and atmospheric systems on terrestrial fluxes of gaseous (including CO2 and water vapor) and non-gaseous (particulate and dissolved organic matter, nutrients, and water) materials and energy between the land and the atmosphere and sea; (2) Evaluate the impacts of variation in radiation, climate, ocean circulation, ocean temperature, and sea ice position and extent on terrestrial processes, including those that have feedback on atmospheric and ocean processes; and (3) Provide high-resolution products (atmospheric, ice, ocean, and terrestrial) and related datasets, relevant to the patterns and controls of terrestrial and oceanic processes, for use in future analyses.The methods for reaching these goals are (A) Use of the regional atmospheric model, Polar MM5, to produce high-resolution atmospheric data for the North Slope of Alaska; (B) Determination and utilization of carbon flux rates and meteorological states from a Sky Arrow aircraft and eddy covariance tower network to obtain regional estimates of carbon balance, and to verify regional modeling; (C) Use of satellite monitoring to quantify spatial patterns and temporal variability of Arctic vegetation structure, productivity, and landscape freeze-thaw state using AVHRR and MODIS; (D) Utilize Biome-BGC and RHESSys ecosystem model simulations of terrestrial carbon and hydrological to conduct detailed site simulations of daily carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets at a range of spatial scales and extents within the study domain; (E) Utilize a high-resolution, regionally coupled ice-ocean model to assess sea ice extent and oceanic processes; and (F) Utilize a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic model to assess hydrologic processes at the watershed scale, providing information on moisture dynamics within and among landscape units in order to assess integrated hydrologic responses on a watershed scale to be verified against measurements of soil moisture and to examine consequent effects such as groundwater flux, stream discharges, and biogeochemical processes.The two education/outreach goals address the broader impacts of the research outlined above as follows: (4) Create computer based, static and near-real time displays, that describe the role of the Arctic in further influencing global change, and to specifically address the sensitivity of the Arctic to global change. These computer-based displays will be interactive and will be strategically placed in areas relevant to local natives, arctic tourists, and K-12 students in Barrow and San Diego County. The displays will integrate discussions of arctic global change studies in association with other regions currently involved in global change research; and (5) Develop materials for use in K-8 classrooms in Barrow, elsewhere on the North Slope, and on the "outside". These materials will help students understand the importance of arctic systems in global change.