Consequences of Changing Topography on Pyroclastic Flow Dispersal During the Current Active Cycle of Tungurahua, Ecuador

厄瓜多尔的通古拉瓦火山高5023米，大约每100年就会爆发一次灾难性的火山喷发。自1999年以来，当前喷发的潜在火山流威胁到距离山顶仅6公里的巴诺斯镇(约20,000名居民)。这项研究将展示与这次喷发相关的快速沉积和侵蚀如何改变人口稠密地区附近山谷内的当地地表。火山流动的计算机模拟将纳入地形变化，以更准确地预测可能受到后续流动影响的地区。这项调查将通过确定历史活动的模式，确定持续的火山活动对山谷地貌演变的影响，以及确定与山谷形态变化相关的新灾害，来确定这些模拟对相关灾害的影响。这本质上是实时的危险分析。这项研究的其他更广泛的影响将是支持来自布法罗大学的一名博士研究员和三名本科生的实地和实验室工作。将鼓励代表人数不足的群体的学生参加，特别是西班牙裔背景的学生。厄瓜多尔基多国家理工学院(IG-EPN)的学生和专业人员也将参加两所大学之间的交流工作。来自该项目的数据将对研究与其他地方类似火山喷发有关的更大范围的危险问题的小组特别感兴趣。

Tungurahua, a 5,023 m high volcano in Ecuador produces a catastrophic eruption approximately every 100 years. Since 1999, potential volcanic flows from the current eruption threaten the town of Banos (~20,000 inhabitants) that is located only 6 km from the summit. This study will show how rapid deposition and erosion related to this eruption change the local ground surface within valleys near populated areas. Computer simulations of volcanic flows will incorporate topographic changes to more accurately forecast the areas that could be affected by subsequent flows. This investigation will determine the consequences of these simulations on associated hazards by determining the pattern of historical activity, establishing the effects of continuous volcanic activity on evolution of valley geomorphology, and ascertaining the new hazards associated with changes in the valley configuration. This essentially is real-time hazard analysis. Additional broader impacts of this study will be to support field and laboratory work of one Ph.D. researcher and 3 undergraduate students from the University at Buffalo. The participation of students from underrepresented groups, especially of Hispanic background, will be encouraged. Students and professionals from Instituto Geofisico, Escuela Politecnica Nacional in Quito (IG-EPN) in Ecuador will also participate in work in an exchange between the two universities. Data from this project will be of particular interest to groups studying the broader-scale problem of hazards related to eruptions of similar volcanoes elsewhere.