SGER: Model Intercomparison: Thermohaline Circulation and Its Relation to Surface Fluxes

美国的三个气候模拟中心（CCSM（NCAR），GFDL和GISS）将于2004年9月发布19世纪末和20世纪全球气候的模拟模型。这些资料将作为对政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）下一份评估报告的投入，并供气候科学家进行一般性研究之用。这是一个研究项目，利用这些模式数据集，沿着过去气候的最佳观测，分析全球气候模式模拟19世纪末和20世纪气候的能力。 大西洋的温盐环流（THC）在调节气候方面起着重要作用，它占向极地热量输送的近一半。然而，缺乏分析工具来显示模型中THC的定量细节。PI将在潜在密度空间中提取3D环流的区域细节（即，等密度线以及diapycnal质量通量分量）从档案的模型，使用的方法，他已经开发。PI在将相同的技术应用于z坐标模型的输出方面获得了相当多的经验。换句话说，经过良好测试的算法是今天可用于转换z坐标模型字段到等密度坐标的方式，允许等密度和diapycnal质量通量被提取。他的研究旨在阐明THC波动在各种耦合模型中在十年时间尺度上介导大气-海洋相互作用的作用。他还将调查过去世纪与人为强迫有关的十年变化，希望为后续研究IPCC第三次评估中导致温室气体强迫模拟中THC强度大幅波动的机制提供基础。 更广泛的影响：海洋的THC环流强烈影响北大西洋和西欧的气候。它的稳定性可能会受到全球变暖的影响。这项研究有可能提高对控制地球自转的物理学的理解。 THC的强度以及未来可能发生的大规模气候变化。这将是更好地了解环境政策决策的重要信息。这是美国气候变化科学计划，气候可变性和可预测性计划（CLIVAR）下的一项资助。

Three climate modeling centers in the U.S. (CCSM (NCAR), GFDL and GISS) will be releasing in September 2004, model simulations of the global climates of the late 19th and 20th centuries. These will be available as input to the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report and also for general studies by climate scientists. The is a research project to use these model data sets, along with the best available observations of the past climate, to analyze the ability of global climate models to simulate the climate of the late 19th and 20th centuries. The thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic plays an important role in regulating climate by accounting for nearly half of the poleward heat transport. However, there is a dearth of analytic tools for displaying quantitative details of the THC in a model. The PI will extract regional details of the 3-D circulation in potential density space (i.e., isopycnal as well as diapycnal mass flux components) from the archives of the models, using the method he has already developed. The PI has gained considerable experience in applying the same technique to output from z coordinate models. In other words, well-tested algorithms are available today for converting z coordinate model fields to isopycnal coordinates in a manner allowing isopycnal and diapycnal mass fluxes to be extracted. His study aims to shed light on the role of THC fluctuations in mediating atmosphere-ocean interactions on decadal time scales in the various coupled models. He will also investigate decadal variability linked to anthropogenic forcings in the past century, hoping to provide a stepping stone for follow-up studies of mechanisms which in the Third IPCC Assessment led to the large fluctuations in THC strength in greenhouse gas-forced simulations. Broader Impacts: The Ocean's THC circulation strongly influences the climate of the North Atlantic and Western Europe. Its stability may be affected by global warming. This research has the potential to improve understanding of the physics that control the strength of the THC and thus, possible large-scale climate changes in the future. This would be important information for better-informed environmental policy decisions.This is a grant under the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's, Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR).