SGER: Statistical Analysis of Multi-Model Ensembles of Climate Experiments

PI是来自北美和欧洲的科学家小组中的一员，他们将合作建立美国和加拿大大陆区域气候预测的基线，使用嵌套在再分析(国家环境预测中心-能源部再分析2和欧洲中期天气预报再分析中心)大气数据场中的区域气候模型。他将在一个名为北美区域气候变化评估计划(NARCCAP)的创新区域气候变化项目中工作。美国NARCCAP的目标是在区域气候建模社区内建立一个框架，大大促进美国区域气候研究对国家优先事项的响应。NARCCAP的意义在于，它将促进美国区域气候模拟的地位，支持理解区域气候的基础科学，并将为影响研究提供最先进的区域气候信息。NARCCAP的具体目标是探索气候变化情景中的综合不确定性，这种不确定性是通过使用多个大气-海洋环流模式为多个区域气候模式提供边界条件而产生的，并最终提供适合于审查气候变化影响的区域分辨数据集。迈向这些目标的关键第一步是，通过评估在重新分析(松散的、“观察到的”)边界条件驱动下参与的RCM，建立RCM准确性的基线。PI的作用是制定一个综合模式输出的一般统计框架，以获得对气候变化的估计，并审查可归因于区域气候变化模式、大气-海洋全球环流模式(AOGCM)以及从AOGCM到RCM的缩小尺度的变化来源。PI将为发展分析方法提供一个试验台，以支持更大规模的NARCCAP实验，并基于对模型结果的统计分析，专注于NARCCAP更广泛的科学规划。更广泛的影响：美国气候变化科学计划战略计划(CCSP，2003年)，http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/vision/development.htm认识到了建立区域模型来评估气候影响的必要性，并在国家研究委员会对CCSP计划的审查中更加强调了这一点。这个项目将帮助国家满足这一需求。

The PI is one of a small team of scientists from North America and Europe who will work collaboratively to establish a baseline for regional climate prediction over the continental U.S. and Canada using regional climate models nested within atmospheric data fields derived from reanalyses (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis). He will work within an innovative regional climate change project called North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The U.S. NARCCAP objective is to develop a framework within the regional climate modeling community that advances substantially the responsiveness of U.S. regional climate research to national priorities. The significance of NARCCAP is that it will advance the status of regional climate modeling in the US in support of understanding the basic science of regional climate and will provide state-of-the-art information on regional climate for impacts studies. The specific goals of NARCCAP are to explore the combined uncertainty in climate change scenarios that results from using multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to provide boundary conditions for multiple regional climate models (RCMs), and ultimately to provide regionally resolved data sets suitable for examining the impacts of climate change. A critical first step toward these goals is to establish a baseline of RCM accuracy by evaluating the participating RCMs when driven by reanalysis (loosely, "observed") boundary conditions. The PI's role is to develop a general statistical framework for synthesizing model output to obtain estimates of climate change and examine sources of variation attributable to the RCM, the Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM), and the downscaling from the AOGCM to the RCM. The PI will provide a testbed for the development of analysis methodology to support the larger-scale NARCCAP experiments and to focus the more extensive scientific planning for NARCCAP based on the statistical analysis of model results. Broader Impacts: The need for regional modeling to assess climate impacts is recognized in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan (CCSP, 2003), http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/vision/development.htm ,and was emphasized even more strongly in the NRC review of the CCSP plan. This project will help the nation meet this need.