Investment and Divestment Decisions under Uncertainty and Information and Tax Asymmetrie

为继续和加强第一个资助期的工作，我们打算继续研究税务，特别是损益的不对称征税和资本利得税，对投资者在动态环境中投资或撤资意愿的影响。我们集中讨论三个主要问题。（1）现有的关于资本利得税对风险投资时机决策影响的研究是基于复杂的多期模型，并非所有这些模型都可以通过分析解决。为了缩小这一研究差距，我们计划开发一个经过修改的、分析透明的模型，该模型将对当前营业利润和资本利得采用分割税率。使用这个模型，它使我们能够从数学上确定主要的影响因素和驱动因素，我们调查是否以及在多大程度上不对称的营业利润和资本收益的税收影响风险投资和撤资决策。(2)As下一步，我们打算测试我们在第一个融资期获得的关于税收诱导投资和撤资效应的理论研究结果是否在实验研究中仍然有效。我们的模型的清晰和可理解的设计，特别是实验再现的经济决策，其中包括一个等待和退出选项，并描绘了不确定性与二进制随机变量，显示出相当大的潜力，在获得进一步的见解。（3）几乎所有关于税收对投资和清算行为影响的研究都是基于人类决策者是绝对理性的假设。然而，在许多实验研究中，研究人员已经表明，测试对象在某些情况下会系统地表现出非理性行为。因此，在认知扭曲干扰严格理性的假设下，研究税收对经济决策的影响很重要。因此，我们将使用行为经济学理论，特别是前景理论，而不是应用遵循传统预期效用理论的方法，该理论从数学上描述了心理因素和非理性行为，在我们计划的税收理论研究中-我们采用新的研究模型和方法，并考虑到行为经济学的各个方面，以产生新的见解税收对投资的影响，撤资决定。这些新的科学发现有助于投资者和政治家预测未来税收改革的影响。因此，它们可以帮助改进现有的税收立法，并增加关于如何提高德国作为投资地点的吸引力的辩论。

To continue and enhance the work of the first funding period, we intend to proceed with our investigations on the influence of taxation, especially the asymmetric taxation of profits and losses and capital gains taxation, on investors' willingness to invest or disinvest in a dynamic setting. We focus on three main questions.(1)Existing studies on the effect of capital gains taxation on risky investment timing decisions are based on complex multi-period models, not all of which can be solved analytically. To close this research gap we plan to develop a modified and analytically transparent model that incorporates a split tax rate on current operating profits and capital gains. Using this model, which allows us to mathematically identify the main influencing factors and drivers, we investigate whether and to what extent asymmetric taxation of operating profits and capital gains impacts risky investment and divestment decisions.(2)As a next step, we intend to test whether the theoretical findings on tax-induced investment and divestment effects we obtained in the first funding period also remain valid in an experimental study. Our model's clear and comprehensible design, particularly the experimental reproduction of an economic decision that incorporates a waiting and exit option and depicts uncertainty with a binary random variable, shows considerable potential in terms of gaining further insights.(3)Almost all previous studies on the effects of taxes on investment and liquidation behavior are based upon the assumption that human decision-makers are absolutely rational. However, in numerous experimental studies researchers have shown that test subjects systematically behave irrationally in certain situations. It is hence important to study the influence of taxes on economic decisions under the presumption that cognitive distortions interfere with strict rationality. Instead of applying methods that follow the traditional expected utility theory, we will hence use behavioral economic theory, specifically Prospect Theory, which mathematically depicts psychological elements and irrational behavior, in our planned theroretical study of tax- induced investment effects.We employ new research models and methods and take into account aspects of behavioral economics to yield new insights into the effect of taxes on investment and divestment decisions. These new scientific findings are helpful for both investors and politicians to anticipate the effects of future tax reforms. They can hence help to improve existing tax legislation and add to the debate on how to increase the attractiveness of Germany as an investment location.