The Fate of The Arctic (Perennial) Sea Ice Cover: Decline and Recovery Mechanisms

提供资金使用输出字段从运行的国家大气研究中心社区气候系统模型，第3版（CCSM 3），以了解负责启动，过渡，并从大规模的北极海冰异常恢复的机制。 一个特别的重点是放在事件中，夏末海冰范围间歇性地减少到大大低于以往任何时候都观察到的多通道卫星数据记录的时代，然后恢复。 将确定模式运行中这些异常低海冰事件的发展和恢复的主要机制。 拟议的工作计划包括三项任务。 该研究将：o评估导致重大低冰事件和随后恢复到正常晚季冰范围的模拟大气和海洋条件，并提供这些阶段期间冰量和热量收支的详细时间序列，o使用离线详细海冰模式进一步研究导致模拟异常的动力过程与热力过程、海洋强迫与大气强迫以及冬季预处理与夏季机制的相对作用，安藤研究了人为强迫情景下的耦合模式实验，以研究控制模拟中与异常相关的机制如何改变，并根据以下方面解释由此产生的海冰演变：模型的优势和不足将在前两个任务中确定。

Funds are provided to use output fields from runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) to understand the mechanisms responsible for initiating, transitioning through, and recovering from large-scale Arctic sea ice anomalies. A particular focus is placed on events in which the late summer sea ice extent episodically decreases to levels drastically below those ever observed in the era recorded by multichannel satellite data and then recovers. The principal mechanisms responsible for development of and the recovery from these anomalous low sea ice events in the model runs will be identified. The proposed work plan consists of three tasks. The study will:o evaluate simulated atmospheric and oceanic conditions that lead to significant low-ice events and subsequent recovery to normal late season ice extent, as well as provide a detailed time series of the ice mass and heat budgets during these phases,o use an offline detailed sea ice model to further examine the relative roles of dynamic versus thermodynamic processes, oceanic versus atmospheric forcing, and winter preconditioning versus summer mechanisms leading to the simulated anomalies, ando examine coupled model experiments under anthropogenic forcing scenarios to study how the mechanisms associated with anomalies in the control simulations are altered and interpret the resultant sea ice evolution in light of model strengths and deficiencies that will be identified in the first two tasks.