Modeling climate futures, impacts, response and adaptation options for Arctic communities

北极正在经历变革性的气候变化，对交通系统产生深远影响。北冰洋航运季节的延长是有据可查的，气温的升高也影响了冬季道路的运行时间和安全性。研究较少的是使用冰冻湖泊、河流、海洋和冻土上未维护的小径的非正式交通网络，这些交通网络对于社区之间的旅行、前往文化遗址以及从事对土著社区特别重要的传统狩猎和捕鱼活动至关重要。在作为土著健康适应气候变化（IHACC）项目（www.ihacc.ca）的一部分进行的研究中，我们记录了加拿大北极地区因纽特人社区的担忧，即由于气候变化而改变小径通道正在影响各种健康结果，包括损害食品安全、影响福祉和降低人身安全。在《自然气候变化》（Ford et al., 2019）上发表的一篇论文中，我们开发了步道访问模型，该模型基于土著知识和科学，确定了影响步道使用能力和安全性的冰和天气条件的定量风险阈值。拟议的博士项目将把这项工作提升到一个新的水平，研究海冰和天气条件的预测未来变化如何影响小径条件，与因纽特人社区密切合作。博士学位有三个主要目标：1。利用最新的气候模式信息为本地区制定合适的气候情景，考虑到响应的不确定性，并考虑到潜在的高影响低可能性的结果。2. 利用已开发的步道通路模型，利用缩小比例的气候模式数据模拟气候和冰相关阈值和相关步道通路在不同变暖水平、不同时间尺度、不同世代和不同类型气候模式（如CMIP5与CMIP6）下可能受到的影响。3. 与一些因纽特人社区合作，使用参与式情景规划方法来检查预计的变化对社区生计、文化和福祉可能意味着什么，并确定适应的机会。将特别注意模式不确定性分布的上半部和下半部分：例如，我们现在承诺的最小变化是什么，以及这在局部可能意味着什么；可能遇到的最坏情况是什么？该博士项目将处于发展创新的跨学科方法的前沿，将科学与土著知识联系起来，并将涉及在见证全球气候变化最严重的地区开展工作。为了反映该项目的跨学科性质，该学生将由一位研究北极土著知识系统的社会科学家（Ford，利兹大学）、一位自然科学家（Lowe，气象局）和一位在加拿大具有参与式流行病学专业知识的流行病学家（Harper，阿尔伯塔大学）指导。学生将在加拿大北部的因纽特人社区度过相当长的时间，并适应在具有挑战性的跨文化背景和气候下工作。他们将有很强的建模和/或统计分析培训，并有兴趣参与一个高度跨学科和参与性的项目。

The Arctic is undergoing transformative climate change, with profound implications for transportation systems. The lengthening of the shipping season in the Arctic Ocean is well-documented herein, with warming temperatures also compromising the operating period and safety of winter roads. Less studied are the more informal transportation networks involving use of unmaintained trails on frozen lakes, rivers, ocean, and the frozen ground, which are critically important for travel between communities, to cultural sites, and for practicing traditional hunting and fishing activities which have particular importance for Indigenous communities. In research conducted as part of the Indigenous Health Adaptation to Climate Change (IHACC) project (www.ihacc.ca), we have documented concerns among Inuit communities in Arctic Canada that changing trail access due to climate change is affecting a variety of health outcomes including compromising food security, impacting wellbeing, and reducing physical safety. In a paper published in Nature Climate Change (Ford et al., 2019) we developed trail access models which identify quantitative risk thresholds of ice and weather conditions that affect the ability and safety of using trails, based upon Indigenous knowledge and science. The proposed PhD project will take this work to the next level, examining how projected future changes in sea ice and weather conditions might affect trail conditions, working closely with Inuit communities. The PhD has 3 primary objectives:1. Draw on the latest climate model information to produce suitable climate scenarios for the region, accounting for uncertainty in response and taking account of potentially high impact low likelihood outcomes. 2. Using already developed trail access models, use the downscaled climate model data to model how climatic and ice-related thresholds and associated trail access might be affected at different levels of warming, over different timescales, and by different generations and classes of climate model (e.g. CMIP5 vs CMIP6). 3. Working with a number of Inuit communities, use participatory scenario planning approaches to examine what projected changes might mean for community livelihoods, culture, and well-being, and identify opportunities for adaptation. Particular attention will be paid to the upper and lower parts of the model uncertainty distributions: for example, what is the minimum change we are now committed to and what this might mean locally; what are the worst case scenarios that may be encountered. The PhD project will be on the cutting edge of developing innovative interdisciplinary approaches to connect science and Indigenous knowledge, and will involve working in the region witnessing the most climate change globally. Reflecting the interdisciplinary nature of the project, the student will be supervised by a social scientist who works with Indigenous knowledge systems in the Arctic (Ford, U of Leeds), a natural scientist (Lowe, Met Office), and an epidemiologist based in Canada who has expertise in participatory epidemiology (Harper, U Alberta). The student will be expected to spend considerable time in Inuit communities in northern Canada, and be comfortable working in challenging cross-cultural contexts and climates. They will have strong modeling and/or statistical analysis training and be interested in engaging in a highly interdisciplinary and participatory project.