DRU Research Community Development Proposal: Workshop on Climate, Uncertainty, and Multilateral Management of Harvested Highly-Migratory Marine Fish Stocks

全球海洋鱼类的收获量在世纪后半期大幅增加。在许多情况下，高度竞争性渔业的扩张导致目标和非目标鱼类种群的规模和复原力下降。目前的捕捞模式已被广泛认为是不可持续的，特别是对捕捞包括金枪鱼和相关鱼种在内的宝贵的高度洄游鱼种的国际渔业而言。 在这方面，生物海洋学的重大进展使人们有必要了解改进对具有商业价值的鱼种的生产力和空间分布的预测的潜在价值。该项目将促进开展协调一致的国际和跨学科社会科学研究工作，重点是更好地了解不确定性的影响以及金枪鱼和其他高度洄游海洋鱼类种群渔业和渔业管理制度方面改进信息的价值。具体而言，该提案将举办一个关于气候、不确定性和捕捞的高度洄游海洋鱼类种群的多边管理的讲习班。迫切需要更好地了解不确定性和信息在竞争性国际渔业中以及在国际渔业管理机构的发展和运作中的作用，以避免因建立和传播改进的渔业管理制度而可能造成的意外损害。生物预测现有的零碎和学科限制的社会科学方法来分析渔业管理问题已经越来越不足以解决这个问题。由于全球化、对渔业产品的需求不断增加和技术进步，海洋渔业的性质发生了迅速变化，因此需要新的分析工具。该项目将通过鼓励合作研究努力，促进新的跨学科理论方法和经验分析的必要发展，重点是：1）风险和不确定性在以金枪鱼和长咀鱼等高度洄游海洋顶级捕食物种为目标的渔业演变中的作用和意义;（2）不确定性在渔业管理中的作用，以及其他制度设计的影响; 3）改进关于气候多变性和捕捞活动对这些种群的生产力和空间分布的影响的科学信息的潜在价值。影响：这项工作将有助于开展更广泛的多学科努力，为在与气候有关的不确定性背景下对高度洄游海洋物种进行可持续多边管理奠定科学基础。例如，这一努力将为作为GLOBEC-CLIOTOP项目组织的国际科学方案提供关于交流研究结果的选择和方法的投入。该项目的最终目标是促进发展一个国际性的多学科研究人员群体，他们的协作工作将为国际渔业管理工作提供有益的指导。讲习班的成果将以印刷品和万维网的形式广泛传播给学术界和管理人员。该项目的教育方面包括学生参加讲习班和一名博士后参加讲习班组织委员会。

Global harvests of marine fish increased substantially during the latter half of the 20th century. The expansion of highly competitive fisheries has led, in many cases, to declines in the size and resilience of both targeted and non-targeted fish populations. Current fishing patterns have been broadly recognized as being unsustainable, particularly for international fisheries exploiting valuable highly-migratory species including tuna and related species. In this context, significant progress in biological oceanography has created a need to understand the potential value of improved forecasts of the productivity and spatial distribution of commercially valuable fish species. This project would facilitate the development of a coordinated international and interdisciplinary social science research effort focused on improved understanding of the effects of uncertainty and the value of improved information in the context of fisheries and fishery management regimes for tuna and other highly migratory marine fish stocks. Specifically, the proposal will hold a Workshop on Climate, Uncertainty, and Multilateral Management of Harvested Highly-Migratory Marine Fish Stocks.Intellectual Merit: A better understanding of the roles of uncertainty and information in competitive international fisheries and in the development and operation of international fisheries governance institutions is urgently needed in order to avoid unintended harm that could arise from creation and dissemination of improved biological forecasts. Existing piece-meal and discipline-bound social science approaches to the analysis of fishery management problems have become increasingly inadequate to address this issue. Rapid changes in the nature of marine fisheries resulting from globalization, growing demand for fisheries products and technical progress require new analytical tools. This project will contribute to the needed development of new cross-disciplinary theoretical approaches and empirical analyses by encouraging collaborative research efforts focused on: 1) the role and significance of risk and uncertainty in the evolution of fisheries targeting highly migratory oceanic top predator species such as tuna and billfish; 2) the role of uncertainty in fisheries governance, and the effects of alternative institutional designs and 3) the potential value of improved scientific information regarding the effects of climatic variability and harvesting activities on the productivity and spatial distribution of these stocks.Broader Impacts: The work will contribute to broader multidisciplinary efforts to develop the scientific basis for sustainable multilateral management of highly migratory marine species in the context of climate-related uncertainties. For example, this effort will provide input to the international science program organized as the GLOBEC - CLIOTOP project regarding options and methods for communicating findings. The ultimate goal of the project is to promote the development of an international, multi-disciplinary community of researchers whose collaborative work will provide useful guidance to international fishery management efforts. Workshop results will be broadly communicated to both academic and management audiences, in print and on the worldwide web. The educational aspects of the project include participation of students in the workshop and participation of one post-doc on the Workshop Organizing Committee.