DHB: Rumor Propagation: Modeling & Testing Dynamic Social Influence Mechanisms

项目摘要：谣言传播：建模和测试动态社会影响机制谣言是一种强大的、无处不在的、持久的影响人和群体的力量。它们在人类的各种态度和行为中发挥着重要作用，但我们对它们如何随着时间的推移以及在我们世界中存在的复杂社会网络的背景下传播知之甚少。像传染病一样，许多谣言在人群之间产生不信任、怀疑和冲突；这样的谣言“存活”了下来，甚至甚嚣风起，尽管人们善意地试图驱散它们，但人们还是相信它们是事实。这是怎么发生的？也就是说，随着时间和社会空间的推移，谣言传播的机制是什么？这个项目将以一些新的方式解决这个问题，使用一个动力系统框架，并在数学家和心理学家之间不同寻常的合作背景下。首先，谣言选择（选择是否分享一个特定的谣言）和对谣言的信念将使用从实证研究中获得的见解和数据，并使用一个动态框架来解释社会网络配置的不同方式，进行计算建模。其次，将进行一系列的实验室实验，在这些实验中，网络化的参与者将通过电子邮件选择和讨论谣言。数学模型和计算机辅助实验室实验都将调查社会空间（一个人的社会网络是如何配置的）和网络同质性（网络中相同群体成员的程度）如何随着时间的推移影响群体层面的谣言结果。最后，研究的一个探索性部分将试点一个网站，收集与传播机制有关的实地数据，并将搜索谣言的档案库。总之，该项目将研究社会空间结构和网络同质性如何影响谣言选择和信仰的时空模式，从而对谣言活动有一个动态的理解，并增加对与群体成员关系相关的动机过程如何随时间和空间影响谣言活动的认识（例如，建立自我或内部群体的愿望如何导致谣言的流行和信仰贬低不同群体）。这些知识对于有效预防和应对有害谣言，特别是那些助长群体间不信任、不和和敌意的谣言至关重要。

Project AbstractRumor Propagation: Modeling & Testing Dynamic Social Influence MechanismsRumors are a powerful, pervasive, and persistent force affecting people and groups. They play an important role in a variety of human attitudes and actions, yet we know little about how they propagate over time and in the context of the complex social networks that exist in our world. Like infectious diseases, many rumors engender mistrust, suspicion, and conflict between people groups; such rumors "survive"-even thrive-and are believed as fact despite well-meaning attempts to dispel them. How does this happen? That is, what are the mechanisms involved in rumor propagation over time and across social spaces? This project will address that question in a couple of new ways, using a dynamical systems framework, and in the context of an unusual collaboration between mathematicians and psychologists. First, rumor selection (choosing whether or not to share a particular rumor) and belief in that rumor will be computationally modeled using insights and data gained from empirical research and using a dynamic framework that accounts for different ways in which social networks are configured. Second, a series of laboratory experiments will be conducted in which groups of networked participants will select and discuss rumors via email. Both the mathematical modeling and the computer assisted laboratory experiments will investigate how social space (how a person's social network is configured) and network homogeneity (the extent of same group membership in a network) affect group-level rumor outcomes over time. Finally, an exploratory arm of the study will pilot a web-site for collection of field data related to propagation mechanisms and will search for archival repositories of rumor. In summary, the project will study how social space configuration and network homogeneity affect temporal and spatial patterns of rumor selection and belief, resulting in a dynamical understanding of rumor activity and increased knowledge about how motivational processes associated with group membership affect rumor activity over time and space (e.g., how desiring to build up one's self or one's ingroup may lead to the popularity of and belief in rumors derogating a different group). Such knowledge is vital for the effective prevention of and response to harmful rumors, especially those that foster intergroup distrust, discord, and hostility.