Collaborative Research: CMG: Estimation of Ocean Currents and Wave-Eddy Turbulence from Float Observations

0530748/05300893拟议的研究将开发一种新的数学方法，以便更好地理解长期相关性对海水路径和扩散的行为和可预测性的影响。非平衡统计力学和概率统计的方法将被用来获得一系列复杂程度不同的随机拉格朗日模型。模型将使用首次退出时间概念和概率加权矩技术进行验证。该方法将利用比海洋学中使用的传统方法更短的观测序列，对测量中的噪声影响具有鲁棒性，并考虑了波涡海洋场的不均匀。数学技术的有效性将通过使用北太平洋和北大西洋的次表层浮子观测来估计拉格朗日统计量和洋流来说明。将开发用于分析海洋中漂浮者和漂流者运动的基本数学技术。这些新技术的更高精度将改善对平均速度场的描述，以及对海水路径和扩散的描述。计算效率可能允许更有效地将拉格朗日数据同化为数值海洋模式。结果将使人们能够更好地了解和描述不同地理区域之间的海水交换，例如大陆边缘和深海之间或亚热带和亚北极区海洋环流之间的交换。结果将有助于估计大陆边缘向深海的碳出口、亚热带地区二氧化碳的封存以及污染物在海洋中的扩散等相关问题。更广泛的影响：该提案将涉及研究生和年轻科学家，包括来自海军研究生院(加利福尼亚州蒙特利)、南加州大学(加利福尼亚州洛杉矶)以及蒙特利地区其他机构(蒙特利湾水族馆研究所、苔藓登陆海洋实验室和太平洋渔业环境实验室)的女性。海流速度和扩散系数将被用来预测加州中部海岸的生物生产力。与来自南安普敦(英国)的研究人员合作与海洋中心合作，所开发的方法将应用于在北大西洋收集的Argo浮标观测，以重建和了解中深层海洋环流的可变性。这将有助于ARGO计划，即全球海洋和气候观测系统。活动将包括公开的科学交流以及向更广泛的社区介绍。为确保向尽可能广泛的科学和公众受众传播研究成果，项目成果将及时发表在同行评议的科学文献中；并在美国和国外的科学会议和讲习班上介绍。临时工作文件和图示将张贴在*.edu域的网站上。研究成果将以易于使用的形式转化为研究生和本科生课程的教具，如视觉动画和Microsoft PowerPoint演示文稿，并将通过互联网向决策者和广大公众提供。这些教育材料也可用于研究生级别的海洋科学教科书，内容是利用拉格朗日漂浮物和漂浮物确定环流性质的问题。

0530748/05300893 The proposed study will develop a novel mathematical approach for better understanding contributions of correlations at long periods to the behavior and predictability of the path and dispersion of ocean waters. Methods of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and probabilistic statistics will be applied to obtain a hierarchy of stochastic Lagrangian models of varying complexity. Models will be verified using a first-exit time concept and probability weighted moment techniques. The approach will utilize shorter observation series than traditional methods used in oceanography, be robust to the effects of noise in the measurements, and account for inhomogeneity of wave-eddy oceanic fields. The effectiveness of the mathematical technique will be illustrated by estimating Lagrangian statistics and ocean currents using subsurface float observations from the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.Robust mathematical techniques will be developed for the analysis of the motion of floats and drifters in the ocean. The higher accuracy of these new techniques will improve the description of mean velocity fields as well as those for the path and dispersal of ocean waters. Computational efficiencies may allow more efficient assimilation of Lagrangian data into numerical ocean models. Results will allow a better understanding and description of the exchange of ocean waters between various geographic regions such as the continental margin and the deep ocean or between Subtropical and Subarctic ocean gyres. Results will contribute to related problems such as estimating the carbon export from the continental margin to the deep sea, the sequestration of carbon dioxide in Subtropical regions, and the dispersal of pollutants in the ocean. Broader Impacts: The proposal will involve graduate students and young scientists including women from the Naval Postgraduate School (Monterey, CA), University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA) as well as other Monterey area institutions (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, and Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory). Current velocity and diffusivity will be used to forecast biological productivity along the Central California Coast. In collaboration with researchers from the Southampton (U.K.) Oceanographic Center, the methods developed will be applied to ARGO float observations collected in the North Atlantic in order to reconstruct and understand variability of mid depth ocean circulation. This will contribute the ARGO program, the Global Ocean and Climate Observing Systems. Activities will include open scientific communications as well as presentations to the broader community. To assure the dissemination of the research to the broadest possible scientific and public audience, project results will be published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature in a timely manner; and presented at scientific conferences and workshops in the United States and abroad. Interim working papers and graphical representations will be posted on web- sites in the *.edu domain. Research results will be converted into teaching aids for graduate and undergraduate courses in easy-to-use formats, such as visual animations and Microsoft PowerPoint presentations and will also be available via Internet for policy-makers and the public at large. These educational materials may also be used for a graduate-level marine science textbook on problems of determining circulation properties using Lagrangian floats and drifters.