Collaborative Research: Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes

摘要：有关北极淡水的动态、用途和价值的数据正在迅速积累。然而，目前尚不清楚泛北极的哪些地区最容易受到未来变化的影响。为了着手解决未来泛北极地区淡水可获得性的变化问题，该小组将使用北极类型学系统，将生物物理数据与区域内产生的社会文化数据结合起来，例如人口和水资源价值。他们将使用成熟的数据集来研究高纬度水循环的战略转变。最近的研究表明，气候变化将对北极水文产生重大影响。水文循环的变化会影响地表水的存在和土壤中的热平衡。虽然初步证据表明，气候变化将对北极地区的水文循环产生重大影响，但几乎没有证据可以预测人们使用的淡水数量可能会发生什么变化。关于水文变化将如何影响北极居民的可持续性和文化的了解就更少了。这项研究的总体目标是使用大量现有的数据集，综合描述淡水在泛北极地区人们生活中的关键作用，它在最近发生了怎样的变化，以及它在未来可能会发生什么变化。该小组将使用一个模型来预测气候引起的水循环变化，以及由此对这些高纬度地区的人们造成的水资源压力。与水有关的压力将涉及导致变化的所有关键因素：气候变化、土地利用/覆盖变化以及人类对水的管理。他们试图通过测试与以下方面有关的假设来解决泛北极地区的水资源短缺问题：1)地方、区域和大陆尺度上的主要水文变化类型；2)泛北极地区人类和水文之间的相互作用；以及3)在气候和人口变化下对高纬度水循环的未来预测。这项研究的一个重要组成部分是试图弥合大的大陆尺度的过程与那些作用于局部尺度的过程之间的差距。

Abstract:Data for the dynamics, uses and values of freshwater in the Arctic are rapidly accumulating. However, it is currently unknown which regions of the pan-Arctic are most vulnerable to future changes. In order to begin to address the future change to freshwater availability on a pan-arctic scale, this team will use a system of arctic typologies to enable the integration of biophysical data with socio-cultural data produced regionally, such as demographics and water values. They will use mature data sets to study the strategic transformations of the high latitude water cycle.Recent studies suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on arctic hydrology. Changes in the hydrologic cycle will affect both the presence of surface water and the thermal balance in soil. While preliminary evidence suggests a changing climate will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in arctic regions, very little evidence is available to predict how the quantity of freshwater used by people is likely to change. Even less is understood about how hydrologic changes will affect the sustainability and culture of arctic residents.The overall objective of this research is to use a wide array of existing data sets in a synthesis effort to describe the vital role of freshwater in the lives of people in the pan-Arctic, how it has changed in the recent past, and how it is likely to change in the future. The group will use a model to predict climate-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle and the resultant water stress on people at these high latitudes. Water-related stress will involve all of the key agents of change: climate change, land use/cover change, and water management by humans. They seek to address water stress in the pan-Arctic by testing hypotheses related to the 1) dominant types of hydrologic change at local, regional and continental scales, 2) the interplay between humans and hydrology over the pan-Arctic, and 3) future prognostication of the high latitude water cycle under changing climate and populations. An important component of this research is an attempt to bridge the gap between large, continental scale processes with those processes acting at local scales.