Towards Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

本研究以一套中尺度模式为中心，用于研究多模式超集合，以改进飓风强度预报。这项研究补充了先前关于飓风路径和强度的多模式超系综的工作，其中使用了一套大尺度模型。先前的研究表明，基于超集合的强度预测比所有参与的成员模型都要好（~20%）。由于预计飓风的强度具有中尺度特征，因此本研究正在探索一套中尺度模式在这方面可能非常有用的概念。最近的多机侦察飞行和新一代中尺度模式的发展为进行这种实验提供了独特的机会。这一努力的科学组成领域包括：1)全球和区域模式内的数据同化，2)一套中尺度模式的预测实验，3)中尺度多模式超综的训练和预测阶段的定义，4)这些阶段的预测执行。目的是检查基于超集合的预测验证和对飓风强度预测模型偏差的解释。更广泛的影响：能够提供改进的飓风强度预报具有重大的社会影响。卡特里娜飓风是飓风建模社区面临重大挑战的一个极好的（然而不幸的）例子。虽然大气科学家无法阻止生命和财产的损失，但他们可以通过改进模型来提高预警能力。首席研究员将继续与国家飓风中心的预报员和研究人员进行长期合作。

This study is centered around a suite of mesoscale models that are to be used for research on multi-model superensemble for the improvement of hurricane intensity forecasts. This research complements prior work on multi-model superensemble for hurricane tracks and intensity where a suite of large-scale models was used. The prior research demonstrated that the superensemble-based intensity forecasts are somewhat (~20%) superior to all of the participating member models. Since the intensity of a hurricane is expected to have mesoscale signatures, the notion that a suite of mesoscale models may prove to be very useful in this regard is being explored in this research. The recent multi-aircraft reconnaissance flights and the development of newer generation mesoscale models provide a unique opportunity for carrying out such experimentation. The component areas of science in this endeavor include: i) data assimilation within global and regional models, ii) prediction experiments from a suite of mesoscale models, iii) definition of the training and forecast phase of a mesoscale multi-model superensemble and iv) execution of forecasts for these phases. The intent is to examine superensemble based forecast validations and interpretations of model biases towards hurricane intensity predictions. Broader Impacts: Being able to provide improved hurricane intensity forecasts has major societal impacts. Hurricane Katrina is an excellent (however unfortunate) example where the hurricane modeling community faced a major challenge. Although atmospheric scientists cannot prevent the loss of life and property, they can work towards improving advance warning capabilities from improved modeling. The Principal Investigator will continue his long-standing cooperation with forecasters and researchers at the National Hurricane Center.