Katrina and Rita: The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Risk Assessment

不同类型的人如何回应从卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风等灾难性事件中收集到的信息？ 在灾难性事件发生后，个人对其日常生活中遇到的风险的评估可能会经常更新。 随着时间的推移，更新的风险评估可能会导致决定从一个有飓风破坏风险的城市搬到一个被认为更安全的城市。 通过这个项目，PI打算对生活在美国东南部和墨西哥湾沿岸沿着受飓风威胁地区的人们进行调查。这项调查将包括审查个人选择迁移或留在受飓风威胁地区的至少四个方面：重新评估外来事件的可能性和后果（飓风）;与居住地区有关的“地方”的看法和形象，在该地区的个人看法不同;对为减轻未来灾害而实施的政策方案的评估和信念，以及负责管理这些方案的人员;以及对一系列激励措施的反应，这些激励措施的结构是为了影响一个地区在重大飓风灾害后的恢复。这个项目旨在探讨个人风险评估的经济，文化和制度层面。 重点关注的具体问题是：人们如何在灾难性的外部冲击（如卡特里娜飓风或丽塔飓风）后更新他们的风险评估？ 除了风险评估之外，还有哪些价值观或特征会影响偏好的形成？ 一个人对政府能力的看法，再加上政府的各种激励措施，如何影响不确定情况下的决策？这种对不确定性下决策的多维研究具有深刻的公共政策含义。 一个有效的激励体系是让愿意冒险的人选择留在飓风威胁地区。在某种程度上，这种食欲可能受到对地方的看法的影响。什么是有效的政策？一项“经济上有效”的政策是否具有社会学意义？这种政策将如何影响一个社区的社会经济、文化和种族构成？

How do different types of people respond to information gleaned from catastrophic events such as Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita? In the wake of a catastrophic event, an individual's assessment of the risks encountered in his/her daily life is likely to be subject to frequent updating. Over time, one's updated risk assessment may result in a decision to move from a city at risk of hurricane damage to one that is perceived to be safer. With this project, the PIs intend to launch a survey of people that live in hurricane-threatened regions along the US Southeastern and Gulf Coasts. This survey will include an examination of at least four dimensions of an individual's choice to migrate or remain in a hurricane-threatened region: re-assessments of the probability and consequences of the exogenous event (the hurricane); perceptions and images of "place" associated with a region of residence that differ in the perceptions of individuals in that area; evaluations and beliefs concerning the policy programs put in place to mitigate future disasters, as well as the people responsible for managing them; and responses to the bundle of incentives that are structured to influence the recovery of a region after a major hurricane disaster.The objective of this project is to explore the economic, cultural, and institutional dimensions of an individual's risk assessment. The specific questions of focus are: How do people update their risk assessments after a catastrophic exogenous shock such as Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Rita? What values or characteristics beyond risk assessment influence the formation of preferences? How does one's perception of government competence, combined with various types of government incentives, influence decision-making under uncertainty?This multi-dimensional study of decision-making under uncertainty has profound public policy implications. An efficient incentive system is one in which people who have the appetite for the risk select to stay in hurricane-threatened areas. In part this appetite may be influenced by perceptions of place. What is an efficient policy? Does an "economically efficient" policy have sociological implications? How will such a policy impact the socio-economic, cultural and racial make-up of a community?