Effects of Hurricane Katrina on Evacuation Intent: A Panel Study

在这项小组研究中，对佛罗里达州、阿拉巴马州、密西西比州和路易斯安那州的家庭进行了地理编码样本，这些家庭在伊万飓风后首次接受了采访，将对他们的飓风知识、态度、行为和未来意图进行重新采访。目的是评估不同类型或级别的2005年飓风经验（包括在电视上观看疏散和飓风影响的“虚拟”经验）对态度和行为的影响，特别是与疏散有关的态度和行为。具体目标包括：1)记录每个家庭对卡特里娜飓风和/或丽塔飓风的经历和应对程度；2)确定这些家庭如何评估其风险水平，包括使用的信息来源；3)分析与准备和/或疏散相关的家庭决策过程，包括路线选择。4)识别促进和约束疏散决策的因素；5)比较2005年飓风前后的飓风相关知识和态度；6)分析他们2005年经历的性质与态度（包括未来意图）的变化之间的关系；7)向政策制定者和应急人员提出一套建议，以改善飓风反应，包括疏散合规，特别是在风险最高的人群中。一个由社会科学家和交通工程师组成的经验丰富的跨学科团队正在设计和实施这项研究，并解释结果。研究集中在四个方面，这是任何疏散行为综合模型的基本考虑因素：飓风信息和风险沟通；时间问题和决策约束；交通限制;以及高危人群。数据收集的主要部分包括对尽可能多的原始基于地理信息系统的3200户随机抽样进行计算机辅助电话采访（英语或西班牙语）。联合项目负责人在飓风行为研究方面拥有丰富的经验，包括疏散决策建模、家庭和家庭反应以及基于gis的数据分析。小组研究在灾害研究中很少见。该项目将提供关于后续飓风对同一受访者的态度和行为的影响的独特信息。除了他们报告的经验之外，基于gis的数据集将允许研究人员在地理上定位每个家庭与随后的风暴的关系，包括对报告的疏散路线的分析。另一个增加这项工作的智力价值的因素是，使用这些数据改进的决策模型将有助于更好地理解与人们如何定义和应对风险相关的认知过程。该项目的研究结果将通过论文和出版物，以及在网站上公布报告和数据，广泛传播给研究人员和从业人员。这项工作将提出建议，以改善撤离的遵守情况，从而促进沿海人口的安全，包括那些最危险的人。

In this panel study a geo-coded sample of householders in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana who were first interviewed after Hurricane Ivan will be re-interviewed related to their hurricane knowledge, attitudes, behavior and future intent. The purpose is to assess the effects of different types or levels of experience with the 2005 hurricanes (including the "virtual" experience of watching the evacuations and hurricane impacts on television) on the attitudes and behavior, particularly those related to evacuation. Specific objectives include: 1) To document the extent to which each household experienced and responded to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita; 2) To determine how these households assessed their level of risk, including the information sources used; 3) To analyze household decision processes related to preparing and/or evacuating, including choice of routes. 4) To identify factors that promoted and constrained evacuation decisions; 5) To compare hurricane-related knowledge and attitudes before and after the 2005 hurricanes; 6) To analyze the relationship between the nature of their 2005 experiences and any revealed changes in attitudes, including future intentions; and 7) To develop a set of recommendations to policymakers and responders to improve hurricane response, including evacuation compliance, particularly among those at highest risk. An experienced interdisciplinary team of social scientists and a traffic engineer is designing and implementing the study, and interpreting the results. The research focuses on four areas which are essential considerations in any comprehensive model of evacuation behavior: Hurricane message and risk communication; time issues and decision constraints; transportation constraints; and high-risk populations. The major part of the data collection consists of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (in English or Spanish) of as many of the original GIS-based random sample of 3200 households as possible. The Co-PI's have extensive experience in hurricane behavioral research, including evacuation decision-modeling, family and household response, and GIS-based data analysis.Panel studies are rare in disaster research. This project will provide unique information about the effects of subsequent hurricanes on the attitudes and behavior of the same respondents. In addition to their reported experience, the GIS-based data set will allow the researchers to geographically locate each household in relation to subsequent storms, including an analysis of reported evacuation routes. Another factor adding to the intellectual merit of this work is that the decision-making model refined using these data will add to a better understanding of cognitive processes related to how people define and react to risk. The findings from this project will be widely disseminated to researchers and practitioners through papers and publications, as well as posting of the report and data on a website. The work will result in recommendations to improve evacuation compliance, and thus promote the safety of coastal populations, including those most at risk.