Collaborative Proposal: From Warnings to Dynamic Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: an Integrated Social Science-Engineering Perspective

该项目将通过将家庭决策的行为建模与动态运输建模相结合，开发理解飓风疏散的新方法。通过对疏散决策的理解，有助于提高飓风疏散效率。本项目将开发新的建模方法：(1)通过对迈阿密戴德县居民的调查，估计影响家庭疏散决策的社会、人口和文化特征；(2)了解人们在做出疏散决定之前是如何综合疏散警告的；(3)基于空间区位的农户决策影响评估；(4)从预警时间开始估算疏散人员的时间变化；(5)根据时间需求模式确定最优发车时间、最优路线和目的地选择；(6)结合社会科学分析得出的行为规则来模拟交通系统的影响；(7)确定将从多个飓风情景中获得的结果分发给利益相关者的方法。该项目将采用多学科方法，通过将社会科学、网络优化、基于代理的建模、运输操作、随机优化和飓风应急响应等方法结合起来，了解飓风疏散情况。

This project will develop new methodologies for understanding hurricane evacuations by integrating behavioral modeling of household decision making with dynamic transportation modeling. By understanding evacuation decision making, the research will contribute to improving the efficiency of hurricane evacuation.This project will develop novel modeling approaches to: (1) Estimate the social, demographic and cultural characteristics that influence household evacuation decision making from surveys of Miami-Dade County residents; (2) Understand how people synthesize evacuation warnings up to the time they make the decision to evacuate;(3) Assess the influence of household decisions based on spatial location; (4) Estimate the temporal variation of evacuees from the time of warning; (5) Determine the optimal time of departure, optimal route and destination choice based on the temporal demand patterns; (6) Incorporate behavioral rules obtained from social science analysis to simulate the transportation system impacts; and (7) Identify ways to distribute the obtained results from multiple hurricane scenarios to stakeholders.The project will use multidisciplinary approaches to understand hurricane evacuation by bringing together approaches from social science, network optimization, agent-based modeling, transportation operations, stochastic optimization and hurricane emergency response.