Collaborative Proposal: From Warnings to Dynamic Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: an Integrated Social Science-Engineering Perspective

协作提案：从警告到动态飓风疏散模型：综合社会科学与工程的视角

• 批准号: 0826950
• 负责人: Hugh Gladwin
• 金额: $ 17.67万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-10-01 至 2012-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0826950&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Proposal; Warnings; Dynamic; Hurricane

This project will develop new methodologies for understanding hurricane evacuations by integrating behavioral modeling of household decision making with dynamic transportation modeling. By understanding evacuation decision making, the research will contribute to improving the efficiency of hurricane evacuation.This project will develop novel modeling approaches to: (1) Estimate the social, demographic and cultural characteristics that influence household evacuation decision making from surveys of Miami-Dade County residents; (2) Understand how people synthesize evacuation warnings up to the time they make the decision to evacuate;(3) Assess the influence of household decisions based on spatial location; (4) Estimate the temporal variation of evacuees from the time of warning; (5) Determine the optimal time of departure, optimal route and destination choice based on the temporal demand patterns; (6) Incorporate behavioral rules obtained from social science analysis to simulate the transportation system impacts; and (7) Identify ways to distribute the obtained results from multiple hurricane scenarios to stakeholders.The project will use multidisciplinary approaches to understand hurricane evacuation by bringing together approaches from social science, network optimization, agent-based modeling, transportation operations, stochastic optimization and hurricane emergency response.

该项目将开发新的方法来理解飓风疏散集成行为建模的家庭决策与动态交通建模。通过了解疏散决策，本研究将有助于提高飓风疏散的效率。本项目将开发新的建模方法：（1）通过对迈阿密-戴德县居民的调查，估计影响家庭疏散决策的社会、人口和文化特征;（2）了解人们如何综合疏散警告，直到他们做出疏散决定;（3）基于空间位置评估住户决策的影响;（4）估计从警报时间开始的疏散人员的时间变化;（5）基于时间需求模式确定最佳离开时间、最佳路线和目的地选择;（6）结合从社会科学分析中获得的行为规则来模拟交通系统影响;以及（7）确定将从多个飓风情景中获得的结果分发给利益相关者的方法。该项目将使用多学科方法，通过汇集社会科学、网络优化、基于代理的建模、运输操作、随机优化和飓风应急响应等方法来理解飓风疏散。