Doctoral Dissertation Research: An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Business Reopenings in New Orleans Post Hurricane Katrina

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Many observers believe that cities and places subject to frequent natural and human disturbance will reach "tipping points" that inhibit their resilience to the level that recovery may not be possible. Understanding the complex relationships among human and natural systems and the thresholds of tipping points are critical to ensuring sustainable development of cities and regions, especially when they are faced with the threats of both long-term climate change and short-term, large-scale disturbance. Until recently, most of the research in the field of post disaster recovery focused on households or whole communities. The empirical study of business responses to disasters is relatively scarce, despite the fact that businesses are a fundamental part of the cities, providing services, jobs, and taxes that are essential for urban sustainability. This doctoral dissertation research project will develop an agent-based simulation model to represent and understand the businesses reopening process in a dynamic environment in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. The research has two objectives. First, it will identify the main predictors associated with reopening and estimate their relative importance over time, using an empirical data set collected during studies conducted over the previous five years. A computer simulation model based on the parameters derived from the first objective then will be developed and validated to represent the business-reopening process.This project will contribute to geography, related spatial sciences, and other fields that examine disaster economy recovery and dynamic modeling. The use of simulation will enhance understanding of the complex recovery process and how a business opening in one location at one point in time will affect business reopening probabilities in other locations in later time periods. The validated simulation model supported by real data will allow researchers and policy makers to design and test recovery policies so that resources can be better allocated. Although the simulation model will be based on post-Katrina New Orleans data, it will be adaptable for other locations affected by disasters of a similar nature. The simulation and visualization computer program developed in this research will be made available to the open source community. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.