Investment Planning for Regional Natural Disaster Mitigation

摘要CMS-0555738(戴维森)区域减灾投资规划该项目将开发一套模型，以帮助指导区域减灾资金的最佳支出，并提供对许多相互作用的因素的洞察，以确定减灾战略的最佳组合。以地震和飓风为重点的区域自然灾害减灾分析模型将帮助预算有限的高危地区决定在灾前减灾上投入多少资金，以减少未来的损失，而不是灾后恢复，以及为许多可能的灾前减灾活动提供资金以满足该地区的需要？S目标，拟议的一套模型将促进关于自然灾害风险管理和同时规划多种灾害的知识。虽然人们普遍认为灾前减灾是可取的，而且已经做了许多工作来开发用于减灾的结构和其他技术，但在什么情况下实施不同的减灾措施是可取的，还没有得到很好的理解。该项目将合并优化和损失估计建模，以提供对缓解资源分配决策的新见解。这些发现可能适用于其他危险，也适用于其他情况下的风险管理者。

Abstract CMS-0555738 (Davidson) Investment Planning for Regional Natural Disaster Mitigation This project will develop a set of models to: help guide an optimal expenditure of regional natural disaster mitigation funds, and provide insight into the many factors that interact to determine the best mix of mitigation strategies. Focusing on earthquakes and hurricanes, the regional natural disaster mitigation analysis models will help an at-risk region with a limited budget decide how much to spend on pre-event mitigation that aims to reduce future losses versus post-event recovery, and which of the many possible pre-event mitigation activities to fund so as to meet the region?s objectives, The proposed set of models will advance knowledge about natural disaster risk management and the simultaneous planning for multiple hazards. While it is widely thought that pre-disaster mitigation is desirable, and a lot has been done to develop structural and other techniques for disaster mitigation, the circumstances in which it is desirable to implement different mitigation measures are not well understood. This project will merge optimization and loss estimation modeling to provide new insights into resource allocation decisions for mitigation. The findings may be generalizable to other hazards and to risk managers in other contexts.