Sticky Borders, Pass Through, and the Terms of Trade

机构：美国国家经济研究局国家科学基金项目：经济学首席研究员：Gopinath， Gita题目：粘性边界、过境与贸易条件汇率政策对一国出口竞争力的影响是什么？一个国家的价格变化在多大程度上可以传递给贸易伙伴？本研究利用一个新颖的数据集在微观层面对美国进口和出口商品的价格,阐明三个重要的问题在国际宏观经济学:(i)粘性价格和汇率的贸易商品的价格是粘在码头,(ii)莫名其妙下降的汇率传递记录全球在最近的十年中,和(3)测量质量增长的贸易及其对贸易条件的影响。大多数试图研究这些问题的研究都使用了国家或行业层面的汇总数据。然而，为了正确理解这些问题，我们需要能够与宏观经济联系起来的微观数据。PI获得的独特数据允许他这样做。PI将开发理论模型，并利用现有的独特数据进行估算。特别是，贸易条件的分解揭示了贸易条件随着一个国家的发展而演变。这项研究的结果将对我们对国内和国际货币和汇率政策的宏观经济影响的理论理解产生重要影响。它将有助于指导我们预测如何通过贸易商品的价格调整来解决全球贸易失衡问题。其次，它将对从事贸易的公司定价的微观经济理论产生影响，特别是对于像美国这样的大型经济体。这项研究将揭示大公司在制定贸易价格方面的特殊结构和市场力量，以及谁承担此类国际交易中的汇率风险。这一结果还将为一些政策问题提供信息，比如中国的经济增长是否会因为贸易条件的变化而放缓。

Proposal No: 0617256 Institution: NBER NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Gopinath, Gita Title: Sticky Borders, Pass Through, and the Terms of Trade ABSTRACT What is the effect of exchange rate policy on the export competitiveness of a country? To what extend can price changes in one country be passed through to a trading partner? This research exploits a novel dataset on micro level prices of imported and exported goods for the U.S. to shed light on three important questions in international macroeconomics: (i) stickiness of prices and the currency in which prices are sticky at the dock for traded goods, (ii) the puzzling decline of exchange rate pass-through that has been documented world wide in the recent decade, and (iii) measurement of the quality growth in trade and its impact on the terms of trade. Most research that attempt to look at these questions has used aggregate country or industry level data. However, to properly understand these questions, one need micro data that can be linked back to the macroeconomy. The unique data the PI has obtained allows him to do that. The PI will develop theoretical models that will be estimated with the unique data available. In particular, the decomposition of the terms of trade throws light on the evolution of the terms of trade as a country grows.The result of this research will have important implications for our theoretical understanding of the macroeconomic impact of monetary and exchange rate policy, both domestically and internationally. It will help guide our predictions of how global trade imbalances will be resolved through the price adjustments of traded goods. Secondly, it will have implications for the microeconomic theory of price setting of firms engaged in trade, particularly for a large economy such as the U.S. The research will shed light on the particular structure and market power of large firms in setting prices in trade as well as who bears the exchange rate risk in such international transactions. The result of this result will also inform policy questions such as whether China will experience a slow down in its growth because of its terms of trade movement.