Marriage and Economic Opportunity in the U.S.

SES：这项研究将评估自1960年以来美国男性和女性经济机会的变化对婚姻形成的影响。在过去的四十年里，初婚年龄中位数的上升是美国历史上最引人注目和最重要的人口变化之一。最初，大多数分析人士将这一变化归因于经济机会和妇女就业的增加。然而，最近，人口统计学研究人员把重点放在男性身上，认为20世纪70年代和80年代男性经济机会的停滞或下降减少了适婚男性的供应，从而导致了前所未有的婚姻延迟。该项目的中心目标是评估历史上男女机会同时变化的影响。工作假设是，女性机会的增加阻碍了婚姻，但这种影响随着时间的推移而减弱; 1970年后，拥有好工作的年轻男性供应的减少是晚婚的关键因素。分析将解决三个关键问题：（1）结婚年龄的上升在多大程度上可归因于年轻男女经济机会的变化、不平等的加剧以及配偶可用性的变化？(2)非西班牙裔白人、黑人和西班牙裔之间的差异变化模式是否是不同社会经济条件的函数？(3)经济机会与结婚之间的关系是否随着时间的推移而改变，特别是在妇女中？这项研究将利用目前人口普查局与明尼苏达州人口中心合作编制的大量限制访问的长格式人口普查数据档案。这一数据系列包括1960年至2000年期间完整的长式人口普查报告。 多层次分析将用于评估当地经济条件（衡量工资分配和劳动力参与率）与年轻男女婚姻决定之间的关系。更广泛的影响：自1960年以来，婚姻模式发生了前所未有的变化，对美国社会产生了深远的影响。最近各州和联邦为促进健康婚姻而发起的一波倡议强调了历史观点的相关性。对婚姻历史转变的看法或隐或显地构成了许多这些方案的基础。因此，对美国婚姻模式长期变化的经验性理解为制定有效的公共政策提供了必要的背景。 除了实质性成果外，该项目还将产生重要的附带效益。对新数据系列进行分析的经验将有助于我们改进完整的长式普查档案的设计和记录。我们还计划编写一份研究过程的说明，以帮助其他计划使用限制性人口普查微观数据进行研究的人。该研究过程模板将张贴在IPUMS网站上。

SES: 0617560Catherine Fitch, J. Michael Oakes, and Steven RugglesMinnesota Population Center, University of MinnesotaThis research will assess the impact of changes in male and female economic opportunity on marriage formation in the United States since 1960. The rise in median age at first marriage over the past four decades is one of the most dramatic and consequential demographic shifts in American history. Initially, most analysts ascribed the change to rising economic opportunity and employment of women. More recently, however, demographic researchers have focused on men, contending that stagnant or declining male economic opportunity in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to the unprecedented delay in marriage by reducing the supply of marriageable men. The central aim of the project is to assess historical changes in the effects of changing male and female opportunity simultaneously. The working hypothesis is that that rising female opportunity discouraged marriage, but that effect diminished over time; after 1970 the decline in the supply of young men with good jobs was the key factor behind late marriage. The analysis will address three key questions: (1) How much of the rise in marriage age may be attributed to shifting economic opportunities of young men and women, rising inequality, and changing spouse availability? (2) Could the differential patterns of change between non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Hispanics be a function of differential socioeconomic conditions? (3) Has the association between economic opportunity and entry into marriage changed over time, especially among women?This study will capitalize on a vast archive of restricted-access long-form census data currently in preparation by the Census Bureau in collaboration with the Minnesota Population Center. This data series includes the complete long-form census returns for the period from 1960 to 2000. Multi-level analysis will be used to assess the relationship between local economic conditions, measured as wage distributions and labor-force participation, and the marriage decisions of young men and women. The analyses will include separate models by gender, race, and ethnicity.Broader Impacts:The unprecedented change in marriage patterns since 1960 has profound implications for American society. The wave of recent state and federal initiatives to promote healthy marriages underscores the relevance of historical perspective. Perceptions about the historical transformation of marriage implicitly or explicitly form the foundation for many of these programs. Empirical understanding of long-run changes in American marriage patterns therefore provides essential background for the formulation of effective public policy. In addition to substantive results, the project will yield important ancillary benefits. The experience of carrying out analysis of the new data series will help us improve the design and documentation of the complete long-form census files. We also plan to write a description of the research process to assist others who are planning studies using the restricted census microdata. This research process template will be posted on the IPUMS website.