Macro Perspectives on the Labor Market

建议编号：0617876机构：宾夕法尼亚大学国家科学基金会项目：经济学首席研究员：马诺夫斯基，约里埃标题：劳动力市场宏观视角摘要自1960年代末以来，进入劳动力市场的连续一批美国男性的生命周期收入状况显著趋平(增长放缓)，而最近一批人的职业流动性状况显著上升。尽管这一观察结果对公共政策以及家庭储蓄和劳动力供应决策都很重要，但这一现象尚未得到认真研究。使用一种新的随机动态一般均衡模型，这项研究将衡量收入和收入不平等在生命周期中的变化中，推动职业流动性增加的经济力量所占的比例。该理论的核心思想是，收入平均生命周期概况的上升有很大一部分是由队列生命周期中平均职业经历的上升来解释的。初步结果表明，职业流动性的外生增加导致队列生命周期内的平均职业经历较低，而生命周期内的收入状况较为平坦。在允许内生职业流动的均衡模型中，这一机制仍然很重要。这项研究的数据将来自社会保障管理局。(I)发现了美国劳动力市场过去三十年变化的独特特征的新事实，(Ii)研究基于队列的收入生命周期概况的创新研究策略，而大多数文献专注于调查横截面概况的变化，(Iii)提供了一个同时解释过去三十年劳动力市场三个重要变化的理论：群体内收入分散度的急剧增加，收入生命周期概况的显著扁平化，以及职业流动性的大幅增加，这些都是本研究项目的科学价值所在。这一研究将为区分工资结构变化的各种理论以及开发和校准一个新的、创新的劳动力市场模型提供重要的新的经验证据。本研究的结果可用于研究政府帮助劳动者更好地适应劳动力市场变化的政策的有效性。这项研究将为关于工资差距扩大的原因的辩论提供信息。该研究项目将极大地促进我们对劳动力市场和劳动力市场公共政策的理解。

Proposal No: 0617876 Institution: University of Pennsylvania NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Manovskii, Iourii Title: Macro Perspectives on the Labor MarketABSTRACTThere has been a significant flattening (slower growth) of life-cycle earnings profiles for successive cohorts of American men entering the labor market since the late 1960s and a significant upward shift in the profiles of occupational mobility for more recent cohorts. Despite the importance of this observation for public as policy as well as for household savings and labor supply decisions, the phenomenon has not been seriously studied. Using a novel stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this research will measure what fraction of the change in the life-cycle profiles of earnings and earnings inequality is accounted for by the economic forces that drive the increase in occupational mobility. The key idea of the theory is that a substantial fraction of the rise of average life-cycle profile of earnings is explained by rising average occupational experience over the life-cycle of a cohort. Preliminary results suggest that an exogenous increase in occupational mobility leads to lower average occupational experience over the cohorts life-cycle and a flatter life-cycle earnings profile. This mechanism remains important in an equilibrium model that allows for endogenous occupational mobility. The data for this research will come from the Social Security Administration. The (i) discovery of a new fact that uniquely characterizes changes in the US labor market over the last three decades, (ii) an innovative research strategy of studying cohort based life-cycle profiles of earnings, while most of the literature has focused on investigating changes in cross-sectional profiles, (iii) providing a theory that simultaneously accounts for three important changes in the labor market over the last three decades: a sharp increase in the within-group earnings dispersion, a significant flattening of the life-cycle profiles of earnings, and a substantial increase in occupational mobility, characterize the scientific merit of this research project. This research will provide a new empirical evidence important for distinguishing between various theories of changes in the wage structure as well as develop and calibrate a new and innovative model of the labor market. The results of this research can be used to study the effectiveness of government policies to aid workers adapt better to labor market changes. The research will inform the debate on the causes of the increase in wage dispersion. The research project will substantially advance our understanding of the labor market and public policies towards the labor market.