AOC: A Multidisciplinary Protocol for Assessing Climate Impacts , Vulnerability and Adaptation

气候变化是对经济活动的众多潜在影响之一。气候变化的影响可以通过经济系统的现有条件，如国际贸易、生产区和市场，以及通过在一个行业内不断变化的调整决定来增强或减轻。因此，很难评估气候变化的潜在影响及其相对于政治风险等其他变化因素的相对重要性，特别是对于具有多种全球联系的经济活动。这一探索性项目将使用一个中等规模但国际化的行业作为原型，开发改进气候影响、脆弱性和适应评估的方法。酸樱桃产业之所以被选为原型产业，是因为全球90%的产量集中在北美和中欧的九个国家。此外，这个行业对极端气候非常敏感，像许多其他行业一样，规划范围很长，需要进行长期投资才能实现回报。这项研究的潜在贡献包括更好地了解一个行业的局部和全球脆弱性、新兴和下降生产区域对区域经济发展的影响、作为可能的适应战略的国际产品和市场差异化，以及信贷和保险在管理风险中的作用。一个重要的目标是开发改进的方法来评估气候影响、脆弱性和适应。这项研究的最终成果也将对任何易受气候变化和变化影响的商品市场具有重要意义，并将使利益相关者和决策者更好地预测变化的复杂后果。该项目将由一个由美国和国际科学家组成的多学科研究团队承担，他们的专业领域包括农业经济学、气候学、计算机科学、经济学、经济学、地理学和园艺学。实现项目目标的关键是两次小组会议，一次是在规划期开始时举行的，项目小组将在会上细化目标并确定下一年的个人和小组任务，另一次是在规划期结束时举行的第二次讲习班，会上将改进概念框架和方法。最终目标是了解气候作为一个变化因素的相对重要性，包括政治和经济风险。

Climate change is one of many potential influences on economic activities. The impact of climate change may either be enhanced or mitigated by existing conditions of an economic system such as international trade, production areas and markets, and by evolving adjustment decisions within an industry. As a result, assessing the potential impacts of climate change and their relative importance compared to other agents of change such as political risk is difficult, especially for economic activities with multiple, world-wide linkages. This exploratory project will use a modest-sized, yet international, industry as a prototype to develop approaches for improving the assessment of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The tart-cherry industry was chosen as the prototype industry because ninety percent of world production is concentrated in only nine countries in North America and Central Europe. Furthermore, this industry is highly sensitive to climate extremes, and, like many others, has a long planning horizon and requires long-term investments before returns are realized. Potential contributions of this research include a better understanding of local and global vulnerabilities of an industry, the impact of emerging and declining production regions on regional economic development, international product and market differentiation as possible adaptation strategies, and the role of credit and insurance in managing risk. An important goal is to develop improved methods for assessing climate impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. The eventual products of the research also will have significance for any commodity market that is vulnerable to climate variations and change and will allow stakeholders and decision makers to better anticipate the complex consequences of change.This project will be undertaken by a multidisciplinary team of researchers composed of United States and international scientists with specialties in the areas of agricultural economics, climatology, computer science, economics, geography, and horticulture. Essential to meeting the goals of the project are two team meetings, one near the beginning of the planning period where the project team will refine objectives and set individual and group tasks for the following year and a second workshop toward the end of the planning period where the conceptual framework and methods will be refined. The ultimate goal is to understand the relative importance of climate as one agent of change among others including political and economic risk.