HSD: Dynamics of Reforestation in Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: Modeling Land-Use Decision Making and Policy Impacts

在了解土地利用和土地覆盖变化背景下热带和温带森林砍伐的动态方面已经取得了相当大的进展。之前的研究涉及到导致重新造林的决策动力学，但这不是主要的研究焦点，这一过程被确定为一种机制，可以抵消由于全球森林砍伐造成的碳损失。本项目探讨不同层次（地方、州、联邦）行为者之间的相互作用如何促进土地利用决策的变化，从而实现森林的恢复和保护。调查人员将研究印第安纳州（美国）和圣保罗州（巴西）森林恢复的社会、生物物理和体制动态。从19世纪初开始，这两个州都有悠久的定居历史，其中包括迅速的森林砍伐轨迹，随后是农村向城市的迁移过程。森林转型理论认为，民间社会和政府法规的转变使从毁林到再造林的转变成为可能。这项研究将考虑不同法律制度对森林变化过程行动者的影响。研究方法利用了为这两个地区开发的卫星图像和地理信息系统数据，包括地形和水文。将进行住户调查，以收集有关住户属性、土地使用偏好和对资源管理相关政策的认识的信息。访谈对象包括当地政府官员和非政府组织、土地信托基金以及活跃在研究领域的当地利益相关方团体（如农民协会、土地开发商）的管理者。这些调查和访谈将用于为这两个研究领域的基于家庭代理人的土地覆盖变化模型的发展提供信息。我们将把空间方法与实验经济学的工具结合起来，作为检验关键决策理论的一种手段，为基于主体的模型中的决策提供信息。拟议的研究的更广泛的影响将是它对为什么某些地区的森林砍伐速度放缓以及随后导致重新造林的反馈和力量的研究。研究的一个重要部分将是非政府组织在森林恢复努力中发挥的作用。将进一步发展发达经济体的森林覆盖变化理论，以确定地方一级的利益攸关方以及州和联邦的变革行动者如何影响毁林和重新造林的动态。研究结果有可能为旨在鼓励重新造林和碳封存的政策和项目提供信息，并有可能减缓气候变化。该项目是印第安纳大学和巴西圣保罗坎皮纳斯大学的研究人员之间的多学科合作，他们将协调该项目的巴西部分。

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the dynamics of tropical and temperate deforestation within the context of land-use and land-cover change. Touched upon, but not as major a focus of prior research, are the decision-making dynamics that lead to reforestation-a process identified as a mechanism that can offset the loss of carbon due to global deforestation. This project addresses how the interactions between actors at different levels (local, state, federal) contribute to changes in land-use decision making that result in forest restoration and protection. The investigators will examine coupled social, biophysical, and institutional dynamics of forest restoration in the states of Indiana (USA) and Sao Paulo (Brazil). Both states share a long history of settlement from the early 19th century that included rapid deforestation trajectories followed by rural-to-urban migration processes. Forest Transition Theory suggests that shifts in civil society and government regulations make the transition from deforestation to reforestation possible. The research will consider the ramifications of the contrasting legal systems for actors in forest change processes. The study methodology utilizes satellite imagery and GIS data developed for both regions, including topography and hydrology. Household surveys will be conducted to collect information on household attributes, land-use preferences, and awareness of policies related to resource management. Interviews will be conducted with local government officials and managers of nongovernmental organizations, land trusts, and local stakeholder groups active in the study areas (e.g., farmer associations, land developers). The surveys and interviews will be used to inform the development of household-level agent-based models of land-cover change in both study areas. We will integrate spatial methods with tools from experimental economics as a means of testing key decision-making theories to inform the decision making in agent-based models.The broader impact of the proposed research will be its examination of why the rate of deforestation slows in some areas and the feedbacks and forces that then lead to reforestation. An important part of the research will be the role that Non-Governmental Organizations play in forest restoration efforts. Theories of forest cover change in developed economies will be further developed to determine how the dynamics of deforestation and reforestation are affected by both local-level stakeholders and state and federal agents of change. The results have the potential to inform policies and programs designed to encourage reforestation and carbon sequestration, and potentially mitigate climate change. This project is a mult-disciplinary collaboration between researchers at Indiana University and at the University of Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil who will coordinate the Brazilian component of this project.