Improving Hurricane Forecasts with Integrated Water Vapor Observations

这项研究提案的目的是利用综合水汽的连续观测来改进飓风路径和强度的预报。该提案寻求资金，以便在加勒比安装和运营一个全球定位系统台站网络。它们将配备气象传感器，并将分析数据以检索可降水量（PW）。然后，所得到的PW数据将被同化到天气研究和预报（WRF）模型中，以评估它们对飓风预报的影响。这些同化的数据预计将显着改善模型内的湿度场，从而更好地描述水预算，因此提高飓风强度和跟踪predictions.Intellectual优点：这项工作将产生第一个连续的和全天候的观察PW在加勒比地区。飓风依靠温暖的海洋表面来启动和发展。水的蒸发是大气与海洋相互作用的主要方式。预计这些PW值将改善模型分析领域和随后的飓风预测。更广泛的影响：该网络将通过增强国家大地测量局和美国地质测量局正在安装的两个额外的台站网络，对地球科学产生更广泛的影响，以研究该地区的大地变形和海啸预警系统。将收集的所有原始数据将在联合国志愿人员组织存档（http：//www.unavco.org/unavco.html），供大地测量科学家使用，并将利用Unidata本地数据管理器数据分发系统（http：//www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/）将PW等衍生数据产品分发给感兴趣的用户。对于地球科学家来说，这些数据提供了一套观测数据，以研究和了解加勒比地区的构造变形和运动。

The objective of this research proposal is to improve the forecasts of hurricane track and intensity using continuous observations of integrated water vapor. This proposal seeks funds to install and operate a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the Caribbean. They will be equipped with meteorological sensors and the data will be analyzed to retrieve precipitable water vapor (PW). The derived PW data will then be assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate what impact they have on hurricane forecasts. These assimilated data are expected to significantly improve moisture fields within the model, leading to a better description of the water budget, and therefore improved hurricane intensity and track predictions.Intellectual Merit: This work would generate the first continuous and all-weather observations of PW within the Caribbean. Hurricanes rely on warm ocean surfaces to initiate and evolve. The evaporation of water is the dominant way the atmosphere interacts with the ocean. It is expected that these PW values will improve model analysis fields and subsequent hurricane predictions.Broader Impacts: The network will have significant broader impacts for earth sciences by enhancing two additional networks of stations that are being installed by the National Geodetic Survey and the United States Geological Survey to study geodetic deformation of the region and tsunami warning systems. All raw data that will be collected will be archived at UNAVCO (http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html) for geodetic scientists to use, and derived data products such as PW will be distributed to interested users using the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM) data distribution system (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/). For earth scientists, these data provide a set of observations to study and understand the tectonic deformation and motions of the Caribbean.