Collaborative Research: NSFGEO-NERC: Hurricane Risk Amplification and Changing North Atlantic Natural Disasters

合作研究：NSFGEO-NERC：飓风风险放大和改变北大西洋自然灾害

• 批准号: 2244918
• 负责人: Suzana Camargo
• 金额: $ 20.65万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-03-01 至 2026-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2244918&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; NSFGEO; NERC; Hurricane

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.It is a remarkable fact that hurricanes forming in the tropical Atlantic can pose a threat to the northeastern US and Western Europe, both well outside the tropics and on opposite sides of the Atlantic. The ability of hurricanes to inflict damage at such long range is well known in the US, with recent examples including Sandy in 2012 and Ida in 2021. On the other side of the basin Ophelia (2017) and Leslie (2018) caused severe damage in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Such storms are a natural topic for collaboration between NSF and NERC given their transatlantic impacts.Research under this award seeks to understand the Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall at higher latitudes, taking into account their full lifecycle and impacts. Lifecycle is an important consideration as hurricanes can transform considerably as they encounter the cool ocean surface, frontal temperature contrasts, and upper-level ridges, troughs, and jet streams of the middle latitudes. By the time a hurricane makes landfall in Ireland or New York it is likely to have undergone at least a partial transition from the warm core, vertically aligned structure of a tropical cyclone to the cold-core, westward-tilted structure and larger areal extent of an extratropical cyclone. The lifecycle transitions of these hurricanes complicate efforts to understand and predict their behavior and anticipate changes in their frequency and intensity due to climate variability and change. Changes in hurricane structure also create important differences in impacts, for instance storms which retain their tropical characteristics at landfall are typically more damaging, but storms which have largely transformed into extratropical cyclones are considerably more common. They can also create disruptions over a wider area, as was the case with Hurricane Sandy.A key challenge in work on hurricanes at higher latitudes, referred to here as cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs), is scarcity of observations, as CTOs occur infrequently and the observed record is relatively short. This project takes advantage of several archives of model simulations which substantially augment the observations, including ensembles of seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The forecast ensembles contain many examples of CTOs which could have happened but did not, thus boosting the sample size for CTOs from perhaps 3 per year to 300 per year. The project also uses specialized models to look at hurricane impacts, including a high-resolution coastal ocean model to simulate storm surge and a hydrological model for flooding.The project has societal value due to its emphasis on hazardous weather events. The project includes a concerted effort to provide actionable guidance to decision makers. The ensembles available from seasonal forecasts and other model output allows consideration of a wider variety of CTOs than have occurred in the observational record, thus better representing the range of possibilities. The application of storm surge and flood models to these simulated storms provides further guidance on the range of possible CTO impacts. The range of possible storms and their impacts is synthesized in the form of storylines, which are narrative descriptions of the events and their impacts to be used for planning purposes. The project supports a postdoctoral researcher, thereby promoting the future workforce in this research area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学理事会（NSF/GEO）和联合王国国家环境研究理事会（NERC）通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协议联合资助的项目。该协议允许美国/英国提交一份联合提案，并由研究者拥有最大预算比例的机构进行同行评审。一旦成功地共同确定了奖励建议，每个机构都会为各自国家的科学家提供一定比例的预算资金。一个值得注意的事实是，热带大西洋形成的飓风可以对美国东北部和西欧构成威胁，这两个地区都远离热带地区，位于大西洋的两侧。飓风在如此远的距离造成破坏的能力在美国是众所周知的，最近的例子包括2012年的桑迪和2021年的艾达。 在盆地的另一边，奥菲利亚（2017年）和莱斯利（2018年）在爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙造成严重破坏。 考虑到这些风暴的跨大西洋影响，NSF和NERC之间的合作是一个自然的话题。该奖项下的研究旨在了解在高纬度登陆的大西洋飓风，考虑到它们的整个生命周期和影响。 当飓风遇到凉爽的海洋表面、锋面温度对比、中纬度的上层脊、槽和急流时，它们会发生相当大的转变，因此，对流是一个重要的考虑因素。当飓风在爱尔兰或纽约登陆时，它很可能已经经历了至少部分的转变，从热带气旋的暖心、垂直排列结构转变为热带气旋的冷心、西倾结构和更大的区域范围。 这些飓风的生命周期转变使理解和预测其行为以及预测其频率和强度因气候变异性和变化而发生的变化的努力变得复杂。 飓风结构的变化也会造成影响上的重大差异，例如登陆时保持热带特征的风暴通常更具破坏性，但基本上转变为热带气旋的风暴则更为常见。 它们还可能在更大范围内造成破坏，飓风桑迪就是这种情况。高纬度飓风（这里称为热带气旋）研究的一个关键挑战是观测不足，因为热带气旋很少发生，观测记录相对较短。 该项目利用了若干模型模拟档案，这些档案大大增强了观测，包括欧洲中期天气预报中心的季节预报汇编。 预测集合包含了许多可能发生但没有发生的CTO的例子，从而将CTO的样本量从每年3个增加到每年300个。 该项目还使用专门的模型来研究飓风的影响，包括模拟风暴潮的高分辨率沿海海洋模型和洪水的水文模型。 该项目包括为决策者提供可行指导的协调一致努力。 从季节性预报和其他模式输出中获得的集合可以考虑比观测记录中出现的更广泛的CTO，从而更好地代表可能性的范围。 风暴潮和洪水模型的应用，这些模拟风暴提供了进一步的指导范围内可能的CTO的影响。 可能发生的风暴及其影响的范围以故事情节的形式合成，故事情节是对事件及其影响的叙述性描述，用于规划目的。 该项目支持博士后研究人员，从而促进该研究领域的未来劳动力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并且通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Phase transitions between tropical, subtropical, and extratropical cyclones: A review from IWTC-10

热带、亚热带和温带气旋之间的相变：IWTC-10 的回顾

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Wood, Kimberly;Yanase, Wataru;Beven, Jack;Camargo, Suzana J.;Courtney, Joseph B.;Fogarty, Chris;Fukuda, Junya;Kitabatake, Naoko;Kucas, Matthew;McTaggart-Cowan, Ron
• 通讯作者: McTaggart-Cowan, Ron