Integrating Ecological and Evolutionary Processes in Stochastic Biogeographical Models

物种数量的地理变异的原因长期以来一直存在争议，但我们仍然缺乏对物种多样性的空间格局如何产生的清楚了解。一些人试图将其解释为环境变量的函数，而另一些人则强调地球历史的作用。最近在模拟和数学模型方面的进展突出了随机过程。这项拟议的工作整合了所有这些方法，通过在空间和时间上模拟物种范围的起源、适应变化和灭绝，使用几组生物物种分布的高质量数据集和来自地球环境遥感的详细大陆地图。区域和全球生态学视角代表着一组迅速增长的相关学科，这些学科建立在过去对当地生态系统理解方面的进展的基础上。拟议的工作使用先进的当代计算技术来支持对生态系统的解释和建模，其空间规模和分辨率在十年前是无法想象的。全球气候变化的现实对科学家提出了迫切的要求，要求他们预测和准备物种灭绝和地理范围变化的生态和进化影响，并设计保护区和走廊，以缓解气候变化导致的范围变化。拟议的工作旨在为这一目标提供必要的工具。

The causes of geographic variation in the number of species have long been debated, but we still lack a clear understanding of how spatial patterns of species diversity arise. Some attempt to explain them as a function of environmental variables, while others emphasize the role of earth history. Recent advances in simulation and mathematical models highlight random processes. The proposed work integrates all these approaches, by modeling the origin, adaptive shifts, and extinction of species' ranges in both space and time, using high-quality datasets for species distributions of several groups of organisms and detailed continental maps derived from remote sensing of Earth environments.Regional and global perspectives in ecology represent a rapidly growing group of related disciplines that build on past advances in understanding local ecological systems. The proposed work uses advanced contemporary computational technologies to support the interpretation and modeling of ecological systems at spatial scales and resolutions unimaginable just a decade ago. The reality of global climate change places urgent demands on scientists to predict and prepare for ecological and evolutionary effects of extinctions and shifts in species' geographic ranges, and to design reserves and corridors that mitigate range shifts driven by climate change. The work proposed aims to provide essential tools for this objective.