Emergent Behavior of Coupled Human-Landscape Systems

几千年来，人类人口和景观一直在相互作用，但这种相互作用的强度一直在增加。这些强化互动的后果以及社会可以采取什么行动来影响它们的进程在很大程度上仍是未知的。为了解决这一差距，将通过数值模型开发、模型测试、个性化和课堂教学以及针对两个具体案例的公共宣传的综合计划来研究人类与景观密切互动时导致的行为的性质和类型：屏障岛屿度假村，如美国东海岸，以及山区城市-荒野交界处，如洛杉矶边缘。将开发数字模型，包括经济和管理行为者的行为以及景观对自然过程和人类影响的反应方式。将致力于将结果和影响传达给其他研究人员、学生、政策管理人员和普通公众。障碍岛是与大陆海岸平行并由泻湖隔开的低洼沙带，由入海口切割，顶部有沙丘；它们是受欢迎的度假目的地。堰塞岛是通过跟踪其形状和体积的变化来模拟的，这些变化来自：风暴和海浪造成的海滩侵蚀和沉积。度假村的经济学模型使用了两个市场：一个是酒店建设/买卖市场，它将利润最大化的开发商和酒店所有者联系起来；另一个是旅游市场，它将酒店所有者与寻求最佳度假体验的游客联系起来。该模型中的管理者拓宽海滩并修建沙丘，以防止暴风雨并提高海滩质量。该模型将与美国东海岸的历史测量数据进行对比测试，并将用于探索屏障岛屿度假村如何应对海平面上升和全球气候变化导致的暴风雨增加。山区集水区的边缘提供了诱人的居住属性，但开发受到一系列重大危险的影响。在为城市-荒地边界地带开发的模型中，灌木丛植被在火灾之间生长；野火吞噬植被和住宅，并加剧侵蚀；山体滑坡、洪水和含沙泥石流损坏或摧毁住宅；开发商建造住房开发项目，其规模和位置基于预计利润；居民根据预期升值和景观和通勤距离等属性购买住房。模型中的管理人员批准开发；通过规定的燃烧来减轻火灾；通过斜坡稳定、泥石流流域、水库和渠道稳定和壕沟来减轻山体滑坡、洪水和泥石流；以及扑灭火灾。该研究将利用洛杉矶火灾、洪水和城市扩展的历史数据来验证该模型，并将调查城市化对火灾规模和频率的影响，以及不同管理策略下城市-荒地边界的长期空间和时间变化。本研究直接涉及与人类对自然环境和灾害管理的侵蚀相关的社会相关问题和决策。其更广泛的影响将包括个别化和课堂教学、与沿海管理人员的会议和公众宣传。一名研究生和三名本科生将被介绍和培训解决这类问题的技术，加州大学圣迭戈分校将教授一门名为城市景观的课程，以教育更广泛的学生群体。结果将以网页形式向科学家和公众展示，该项目将制作两个广播节目，并在阿萨蒂格岛国家海滨游客中心作为海报和电脑展览。

Human populations and landscapes have been interacting for thousands of years, but the strength of these interactions has been increasing. The consequences of these intensified interactions and the actions that society could take to affect their course remain largely unknown. To address this gap, the nature and types of behaviors that result when humans and landscapes closely interact will be investigated with an integrated program of numerical model development, model testing, individualized and classroom instruction and public outreach for two specific cases: barrier island resorts, such as on the US east coast, and mountainous urban-wildland interfaces, such as on the margins of Los Angeles. Numerical models will be developed that include representations of both the behavior of economic and management actors and the ways in which landscapes respond to natural processes and human influence. Significant effort will be devoted to communicating the results and implications to other researchers, students, policy managers and the general public.Barrier islands are low-lying strips of sand that are parallel to and separated from the mainland coast by lagoons, cut by inlets, and topped by sand dunes; they are popular vacation destinations. Barrier islands are modeled by tracking changes to their shape and volume from: beach erosion and deposition owing to storms and waves. The economics of resorts are modeled using two markets: a hotel building/buying/selling market, which connects profit-maximizing developers and hotel owners; and a tourism market, which connects hotel owners with tourists seeking the best vacation experience for their money. Managers in the model widen the beach and build up dunes to protect against storms and enhance beach quality. The model will be tested against historical measurements from the US east coast and will be used to explore how barrier island resorts respond to rising sea level and increased storminess resulting from global climate change.The margins of mountain catchments offer attractive residential attributes, but development is subject to an array of significant hazards. In the model being developed for the urban-wildland boundary zone, shrubland vegetation grows between fires; wildfires consume vegetation and residences and promote erosion; landslides, floods and sediment-laden debris flows damage or destroy residences; developers build housing developments whose size and location are based on projected profits; and residents buy houses based on projected appreciation and attributes such as view and commute distance. Managers in the model approve developments; mitigate fires with prescribed burns; mitigate landslides, floods and debris flows with slope stabilization, debris basins, reservoirs and channel stabilization and entrenchment; and suppress fires. Historical data on fires, floods and urban expansion in Los Angeles will be used to test the model, and the effect of urbanization on fire size and frequency and the long-term change through space and time of the urban-wildland boundary under differing management strategies will be investigated.This research bears directly on societally relevant problems and policy decisions associated with human encroachment on the natural environment and disaster management. Its broader impact will include individualized and classroom instruction, meetings with coastal managers and public outreach. One graduate student and three undergraduates will be introduced to and trained in techniques to address this category of problems and a UCSD course entitled Urban Landscapes will be taught to educate a broader group of students. The results will be presented to scientists and the public in web pages, two radio programs that will be produced from this project, and as a poster and computer exhibit at the Assateague Island National Seashore Visitor Center.