Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs

为什么有些国家比其他国家更富或更穷？该奖项资助的研究考察了金融市场对经济发展的贡献。长期以来，经济学家一直对这个问题的答案感兴趣：金融市场为什么重要？提出的假设是，金融市场通过将投资资金引导到一个经济体中将产生最高回报的地方来促进经济发展。这将刺激经济增长，从而促进经济发展。为了解决这个问题，我们将建立一个金融中介的经济模型。该模型将强调金融中介机构在提供有关投资机会的信息方面所发挥的作用。信息生产有两种类型：事前和事后。中介机构在发现重要的新投资机会方面发挥着至关重要的作用。这是事前信息生产的一个例子。它们还在确保借款人以明智和诚实的方式使用投资资金方面发挥着关键作用。他们可以通过审计项目来做到这一点。这是一个事后信息生产的例子。信息生产是一项代价高昂的活动，一些国家比其他国家更有效率。各国在金融市场的复杂程度上存在巨大差异。投资者可能不愿投资于较贫穷的国家，因为他们担心，由于缺乏投资者保护，他们的资金将得不到适当的使用，比如对项目进行充分监控的能力。拥有有效金融市场的国家应该比没有有效市场的国家有更多的投资。因此，金融市场的效率将反映在一个国家的资本产出比上。这一比率说明了一个国家的产出中有多少是由资本生产的，而不是劳动力等其他生产资料。有趣的是，富国的资本产出比穷国更高。此外，有效的金融市场将会有较低的利差，即公司支付的贷款与储户从储蓄中赚取的利差。这一价差反映了生产信息的成本，以及金融中介的其他成本。同样有趣的是，穷国的利差比富国更大，各国收入水平也存在巨大差异。例如，美国的人均收入是印度的11倍。这种人均收入的巨大差异到底有多少是由于印度糟糕的金融市场，又有多少是由于其他因素，比如进口限制和缺乏反垄断法规？分析的一个目标将是为这个问题提供一个明确的答案。这将通过在计算机上模拟为世界上一些国家的样本开发的经济模型来实现。这种模拟将以这样一种方式进行，即所开发的经济模型与世界经济中观察到的产出、资本产出比率和利差的分布相匹配。到那时，人们将有可能发现，各国收入的差异有多少是由金融市场造成的。这个问题的答案将具有重要的政策影响。如果缺乏金融发展是经济发展的重大障碍，那么促进更有效的金融中介的政策可能在改善贫穷国家的命运方面具有很高的效力。这样的发现将产生广泛的影响。

Why are some countries richer or poorer than other ones? The research funded in this award examines the contribution that financial markets make to economic development. Economists have long been interested in the answer to the question: Why should financial markets matter? The hypothesis advanced is that financial markets promote economic development by channeling investment funds to the places in an economy that will yield the highest returns. This will spur economic growth, and hence economic development. To address this question an economic model of financial intermediation will be developed. The model will emphasize the role that financial intermediaries play in producing information about investment opportunities. There are two types of information production: ex ante and ex post. Intermediaries play a crucial role in discovering important new investment opportunities. This is an example of ex ante information production. They also play a crucial role in ensuring that borrowers use investment funds in a judicious and honest manner. They may do this by auditing projects. This is an example of ex post information production. Information production is a costly activity, and some countries do it more efficiently than others. Countries have vast differences in the sophistication of their financial markets. Investors may be reluctant to invest in poorer countries because of fears that their funds will not be used appropriately due to a lack of investor protections, such as the ability to monitor projects adequately.Countries that have efficient financial markets should see more investment relative to countries that don't. The efficiency of financial markets will therefore be reflected in a country's capital-to-output ratio. This ratio speaks to how much of a country's output is produced by capital versus other means of production, such as labor. Intriguingly, rich countries have higher capital-output ratios than do poor ones. Additionally, efficient financial markets will have low interest-rate spreads between what firms pay on loans and savers earn on their savings. This spread reflects the costs of producing information, as well as other costs of financial intermediation. Again, interestingly, poor countries have larger interest-rate spreads than do rich countries.There are tremendous differentials in countries' income levels. For example, per capita income in the U.S. is 11 times higher than per capita income in India. Exactly how much of this large differential in per capita income is due to poor financial markets in India, and how much is due to other factors, say, import restrictions, and lack of anti-trust regulations? A goal of the analysis will be to provide an explicit answer to this question. This will be done by simulating on a computer the economic model developed for a sample of countries in the world. This simulation will be undertaken in a manner such that the economic model developed matches the distribution of output, capital-output ratios, and interest-rate spreads observed in the world economy. It will then be possible to uncover how of much of the differences in countries' incomes are due to financial markets. The answer to this question will have important policy implications. If a lack of a financial development is a significant hindrance to economic development, then policies that promote more effective financial intermediation may have a high degree of efficacy in improving the lot of poor countries. Such a finding would have broad impact.