Critical Junctures and the Survival of Dictatorships: Explaining the Stability of Autocratic Regimes

“第三次民主化浪潮”抛弃了相当数量的运作良好的独裁政权。在民主化的时代，威权主义如何能够生存？我们想解决三个文献中的不足之处：第一，大多数研究依赖于一维的类型学，专注于专制统治的结构，但忽略了专制政权的具体再生产机制。第二，研究并列单独的理论链，我们试图通过连接结构和机构在历史制度主义的方法合成。第三，很少有人关注支持专制政权的制度的起源和发展。我们希望关注这些制度，特别是考虑到专制制度化的时间维度。我们确定了专制统治稳定的三个支柱：合法性，拉拢和镇压。我们假设这些支柱的制度化和平衡是专制稳定的原因。参考历史制度主义的关键概念的关键时刻，我们认为，政权威胁的关键时刻发生，如果其他两个不能再补偿危机的剩余支柱。我们采用嵌套研究设计，结合大N定量分析和小N定性案例研究。我们构建了一个1972年至2009年非民主政权的数据集。基于我们的三支柱模型，我们开发了一个基于三个支柱的不同组合的专制统治的类型学。然后，我们进行生存分析，估计三大支柱对政权崩溃概率的影响。最后，我们对不符合我们的理论和统计模型的离群值案例进行深入的案例研究。我们的目标是使用定性研究来测试和改进我们的理论模型。

The ‘third wave of democratization’ left aside a considerable number of well-functioning autocracies. How has authoritarianism in an age of democratization been able to survive? We want to address three shortcomings in the literature: First, most of the studies rely on one-dimensional typologies, focusing on the structure of autocratic domination, but ignoring specific reproduction mechanisms of autocratic regimes. Second, studies juxtapose separate theoretical strands we seek to synthesize by linking structure and agency in an historical institutionalist approach. Third, little attention is paid to the genesis and development of institutions that bolster autocratic regimes. We want to focus on such institutions, specifically taking into account the time dimension of autocratic institutionalization. We identify three pillars of stability of autocratic rule: legitimacy, co-optation, and repression. We hypothesize that the institutionalization and balance of these pillars are responsible for autocratic stability. Referring to historical institutionalism’s key concept of critical juncture, we propose that regime-threatening critical junctures occur if the other two can no longer compensate a crisis in the remaining pillar. We apply a nested research design, combining large-N quantitative analysis with small-N qualitative case study. We construct a dataset of non-democratic regimes from 1972 to 2009. Based on our three-pillar model, we develop a typology of autocratic rule resting on different combinations of the three pillars. We then conduct a survival analysis, estimating the effect of the three pillars on the probability of regime breakdown. Finally, we conduct in-depth case studies of outlier cases that do not fit our theoretical and statistical models. The goal is to use qualitative studies to test and improve our theoretical model.