Can Internet Surveys Be Trusted?

以概率为基础的互联网调查小组可能以低成本从代表一般人群的样本中提供调查答复，并有能力提供复杂的信息处理。 尽管使用随机数字拨号来招募小组成员，但鉴于小组成员招募和保留的多个阶段，这种技术引起了对调查答复代表性的担忧。 关于管理模式（例如在计算机上进行调查）如何影响调查响应，也知之甚少。 本研究将探讨以下问题：（1）给药方式和抽样策略会引入哪些无反应偏倚？ 具体来说，基于概率的互联网面板比其他模式/抽样策略引入更多的偏见？(2)在控制了样本选择后，邮件和互联网管理模式是否会影响兴趣和问题回答模式这一变量？(3)通过标准有效性测试，调查是否对每种模式/抽样策略都表现得同样好？ 为了解决这些问题，四种治疗方法将用于管理支付的意愿调查在南阿巴拉契亚山脉的生态系统改善，交叉两个抽样策略（面板，随机数字拨号）与两种调查模式（纸张，计算机）和第五种治疗方法，其中通过随机数字拨号招募的受访者可以在计算机上（通过互联网）或通过邮件进行调查。 如果人们谁自我选择到邮件（或互联网）调查的答案不同于人谁被分配到邮件（或互联网）模式，这将意味着有特点的人，可以导致有偏见的愿意支付取决于模式。 最先进的技术将用于评估非可观测的无响应（或选择不可观测）沿着丰富的框架变量，包括人口普查区的特点。 该项目将提供更好的理解的因素影响的反应倾向，以及是否响应倾向与调查结果相关，侧重于互联网/面板组合。美国管理和预算办公室最近发布的指导，要求非响应偏差分析的调查预期响应率低于80%。 然而，该指南没有说明如何进行这种分析，而且关于如何进行这种分析以及影响调查答复的因素的调查方法研究相对较少。 本项目提出并评估了测试无应答对样本代表性影响的方法。 这些问题也是美国环境保护署关注的问题，该署通过国家环境经济学中心的竞争性赠款共同资助了该项目。

Probability-based internet survey panels potentially provide survey responses from a sample representative of the general population at low cost and with the ability to provide complex information treatments. Despite using random digit dialing to recruit the panelists, this technique raises concerns about the representativeness of survey responses given the multiple stages of panelist recruitment and retention. Relatively little also is known about how mode of administration, such as taking a survey on a computer, affects survey response. This research project will pursue answers to the following questions: (1) What nonresponse biases are introduced by mode-of-administration and sampling strategies? Specifically, do probability-based internet panels introduce more bias than other modes/sampling strategies? (2) After controlling for sample selection, do the mail and internet modes of administration affect the variable of interest and question response patterns? (3) Does the survey perform equally well for each mode/sampling strategy as gauged by standard tests of validity? To address these questions, four treatment approaches will be used to administer a survey on the willingness to pay for ecosystem improvements in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, crossing two sampling strategies (panel, random digit dialing) with two survey modes (paper, computer) and a fifth treatment in which respondents recruited through random digit dialing may take the survey on a computer (by internet) or by mail. If people who self-select into a mail (or internet) survey answer differently than people who are assigned to a mail (or internet) mode, this would imply that there are characteristics of people that can lead to biased willingness to pay depending on mode. State-of-the-art techniques will be used for evaluating non-ignorable nonresponse (or selection on unobservables) along with a rich variety of frame variables including Census tract characteristics. The project will provide greater understanding of the factors affecting response propensity and whether response propensity is correlated with the survey outcomes, focusing on the internet/panel combination.The U.S. Office of Management and Budget has recently issued guidance that requires a non-response bias analysis for surveys expecting a response rate less than 80 percent. The guidance does not clarify how such analyses are to be conducted, however, and there is relatively little survey methodology research regarding how such analyses should be conducted and the factors that affect survey response. This project proposes and evaluates methods for testing the effects of nonresponse on sample representativeness. These issues also are of concern to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which co-funded this project through a competitive grant from the National Center for Environmental Economics.