Merging Agent-based Modeling Techniques and Ethnography: A New Analytic Tool for Studying Illicit Drug Use Behaviors, Markets and Economies

李博士Hoffer将通过综合人种学决策树和基于代理的建模（ABM）技术，作为改进人种学分析和利用的创新策略，对当地非法毒品市场的运作进行模拟研究。本研究的具体目标是：1）进行当地市场的人种学研究，促进反弹道导弹的发展，2）丰富这些数据使用生态瞬时评估（EMA）技术，和3）构建一个社会/经济模拟计算机模拟，再现市场如何运作。复杂性理论认为，社会结构产生于异质行为者的非线性相互作用，这些行为者不断变化，并被环境所改变。本研究以ABM为工具，探讨当地毒品市场的新兴动态社会结构，其学术价值在于复杂性理论在社会科学中的实际应用。虽然使用ABM的理论演示是常见的，但在人类学中，社会模拟的现实世界研究应用的方法很少。这个项目提供了一个框架，进行实验，从人种学实地调查的结果，提高分析和描述能力的方法。构建模拟代表的结果也扩大了实用的人种学政策制定者有兴趣了解的结果，环境嵌入式和社会构建的互动行为，人类学家study.This项目有广泛的影响政策与非法药物经济，以及未来使用人种学作为一种研究方法。目前关于非法药物市场的知识来自两种不同的文献。大多数研究涉及使用从执法部门收集的行政数据和其他间接流行病学指标进行的大规模研究。这项研究的重点是了解非法药物经济的关联和结果。另一方面，人种学研究描述了这种经济中的角色，交易以及当地非法毒品市场和组织如何运作。这两种研究视角都是信息丰富的;然而，两者都不具备将分析水平联系起来的能力。使用ABM将当地药物市场作为一个复杂的适应系统进行研究，将使研究能够扩大结果，进行实验，并产生以前使用其他方法无法获得的结果。这一知识将为制定和评价政策和干预措施提供新的视角，以有效减少这些活动的影响。

Dr. Lee D. Hoffer, will undertake research on the simulation of the operation of a local illegal drug market by synthesizing ethnographic decision tree and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) techniques as an innovative strategy for improving ethnographic analysis and utilization. The specific aims of this research are to: 1) conduct an ethnographic study of the local market that facilitates ABM development, 2) enrich these data using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) technologies, and 3) construct a social / economic simulation computer simulation that reproduces how the market operates. Complexity Theory suggests social structures emerge from non-linear interactions of heterogeneous actors changing, and being changed by, their environment. Investigating the emergent and dynamic social structures of a local drug market using ABM, the intellectual merits of this study involve the practical application of Complexity Theory in social science. While theoretical demonstrations of emergence using ABM are common, well articulated methods for real-world research applications of social simulation in anthropology are scarce. This project provides a framework for conducting experiments with findings from ethnographic fieldwork enhancing both the analytic and descriptive capabilities of the methodology. Constructing simulations representing results also expands the utility of ethnography to policymakers interested in understanding the outcomes of the environmentally embedded and socially constructed interactive behaviors that anthropologists study.This project has broad impacts on policy associated with both the illicit drug economy, as well as future uses of ethnography as a research methodology. Current knowledge about illicit drug markets is informed by two distinct literatures. The majority of research involves large-scale studies using data collected administratively from law enforcement, and other indirect epidemiological indicators. This research focuses on understanding associations and outcomes of the illicit drug economy. On the other hand, ethnographic research has described roles within this economy, transactions, and how local illicit drug markets and organizations operate. Both research perspectives are informative; however, neither individually is equipped to link levels of analysis. Researching the local drug market as a Complex Adaptive System using ABM will allow research to scale-up results, conduct experiments, and generate outcomes previously unavailable using other methods. This knowledge will provide a new perspective for constructing and evaluating policies and interventions to effectively reduce the impact of these activities.