Collaborative Research: Purchasing and Inventory Management in Disrupted Supply Chains: The Reverse Bullwhip Effect

该项目假设存在反向牛鞭效应（RBWE），其中需求（订单）的可变性增加，作为一个移动下游的供应链。 (The经典的牛鞭效应（BWE）描述了相反的现象。 RBWE是由供应不确定性引起的，因为供应信号在下游传播时会失真。 它可能与斗轮挖掘机共存，导致供应链中间的可变性最大。 该项目研究了RBWE的原因，研究了减轻RBWE的策略，并探讨了RBWE和BWE之间的关系。 第一部分将建立理论和模拟模型，以确定RBWE发生的条件、其对成本的影响以及减轻RBWE的策略。基于众所周知的“啤酒游戏”的行为研究将测试供应中断时参与者的订购行为。 第二部分将制定模型，描述在需求和价格相互依赖的短缺情况下的购买行为。 它将研究的影响，中断的特点RBWE和有效性的定价作为一种战略，以减轻it. This研究将使订购模式在供应链中的供应不确定性期间的更清楚的了解，并提供了一套工具，减少两种类型的牛鞭效应和它们的负面影响，供应链和他们的客户。 在人道主义危机和自然及人为灾害期间，RBWE可能最为明显，深入了解RBWE以及减轻RBWE的技术，对于满足紧急物资、食品、能源和救济服务的需求可能至关重要。 在这项研究中开发的模型也将被纳入一个供应链模拟软件包编写的一个PI;该软件和“啤酒游戏”软件将免费传播的研究和教育目的。

This project postulates the existence of a reverse bullwhip effect (RBWE) in which demand (order) variability increases as one moves downstream in a supply chain. (The classical bullwhip effect (BWE) describes the opposite phenomenon.) The RBWE is caused by supply uncertainty, as supply signals are distorted as they travel downstream. It may co-exist with the BWE, causing variability to be largest in the middle of the supply chain. This project examines the causes of the RBWE, studies strategies for mitigating it, and explores the relationship between the RBWE and the BWE. The first component will build theoretical and simulation models to determine the conditions under which the RBWE occurs, its effect on costs, and strategies for mitigating it. A behavioral study, based on the well known "beer game," will test players' ordering behaviors during supply disruptions. The second component will formulate models that describe purchasing behavior in a shortage situation when demand and price are interdependent. It will examine the impact of disruption characteristics on the RBWE and the effectiveness of pricing as a strategy for mitigating it. This research will enable a clearer understanding of ordering patterns in a supply chain during periods of supply uncertainty and provide a set of tools for reducing both types of bullwhip effects and their negative impacts on both supply chains and their customers. The RBWE is likely to be most pronounced during humanitarian crises and natural and man-made disasters, and a deeper understanding of the RBWE, and techniques for mitigating it, may be critical for meeting demand for emergency supplies, food, energy, and relief services. The models developed in this research will also be incorporated into a supply chain simulation software package written by one of the PIs; that software and the "beer game" software will be freely disseminated for research and educational purposes.