CAREER: Quantifying Environmental-Ecological Relationships for Watershed Sustainability Analysis

Abstract0747276 (Cai)。该职业奖侧重于可持续流域管理（SWM），使用定量跨学科分析来了解以水文-生态-社会经济关系为特征的复杂流域系统中的相互关系和生态阈值。将制定明确的生态目标方程，量化鱼类群落多样性和丰度之间的关系以及与生态有关的环境指标（生态目标方程，例如流量和水质指标）。将实施一个多主体系统（MAS）模型，该模型结合了异构主体行为、流域水文和定量环境生态关系。科学上有意义的生态阈值将被识别和验证。将建立一种面向问题、需求驱动的相互学习的研究和教育方法，促进批判性思维，并将反思性经验和教训纳入定量分析。知识价值。ETE的概念和工具将明确地处理环境变量与目标生态系统的相关性。从数百个指标中确定生态水文指标将解决指标冗余问题，该问题阻碍了对生态-水文连通性的科学理解和流域修复的工程设计。基本问题，如人类干预如何迫使流域生态系统跨越阈值，将通过基于mas的建模来解决。生态阈值的发现和认识是流域不可逆过渡早期预警的关键。更广泛的影响。该项目为五大影响铺平了道路：1)生态环境评价系统和生态环境评价系统将成为生态学家和水文学家的有效工具，生态-水文连通性的研究结果有望激发更广泛、更深入的科学研究；2)基于mas的虚拟模型将为SWM的教育、研究和实践部门之间就科学理解、管理政策评估和决策支持等广泛问题提供交流；所开发的工具将具有足够的通用性，可以扩展到非鱼类生态系统指标，如河岸植被和栖息地；4)虚拟工具练习将为更有效的传感和监测系统设计以及流域网络基础设施开发提供指导；5)相互学习计划将通过有意地连接利益相关者群体来增强长期可持续性。提供新的机会，增加少数群体和代表性不足的利益攸关方的参与和参与。

Abstract0747276 (Cai). This CAREER award focuses on sustainable watershed management (SWM) using quantitative interdisciplinary analysis to understand the inter-relationships and ecological thresholds within complex watershed systems characterized by hydrological-ecological-socioeconomic relationships. Explicit ecological target equations (ETEs) that quantify the relationships between fish community diversity and abundance and ecologically relevant environmental indicators (EREIs, e.g., streamflow and water quality metrics) will be developed. A multiple agent system (MAS) model combining heterogeneous agent behaviors, watershed hydrology, and quantitative environmental-ecological relationships will be implemented. Scientifically meaningful ecological thresholds will be identified and validated. A problem oriented, demand-driven mutual learning approach to research and education, which facilitates critical thinking and assimilates reflective experiences and lessons into quantitative analysis, will be created.Intellectual Merit. The ETE concept and tool will explicitly address the relevance of environmental variables to the target ecosystem. Identifying the EREIs from hundreds of metrics will resolve the indicator redundancy problem that hinders both the scientific understanding of ecology-hydrology connectedness and engineering design for watershed restoration. Fundamental questions, such as how human interference forces watershed ecosystems across thresholds, will be addressed through MAS-based modeling. The discovery and understanding of ecological thresholds is the key to early warning of irreversible transitions in watersheds.Broader Impacts. This project paves the way for five broad impacts: 1) ETEs and EREIs will be effective tools for both ecologists and hydrologists, and the findings on ecology-hydrology connectedness are expected to stimulate wider and deeper scientific research, 2) the MAS-based virtual model will provide a communication among the education, research, and practice sectors of SWM for a wide range of problems related to scientific understanding, management policy evaluation, and decision making support, 3) the concepts, procedures, and tools to be developed will be generalizable enough to be extendible to non-fish ecosystem indicators such as riparian vegetation and habitats, 4) virtual tool exercises will provide guidelines for more efficient sensing and monitoring system design and for cyberinfrastructure development in watersheds,, and 5) the mutual learning program will enhance long-term sustainability by intentionally connecting stakeholder groups, providing new opportunities to increase involvement and participation of minority and underrepresented stakeholders.