INFEWS/T1: Advancing FEW System Resilience in the Corn Belt by Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Modeling of Nutrient Cycling

INFEWS/T1：通过养分循环的综合技术-环境-经济模型提高玉米带的 FEW 系统弹性

• 批准号: 1739788
• 负责人: Ximing Cai
• 金额: $ 243.12万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1739788&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; T1; Advancing; FEW; System

Food production, water supply, water quality, energy supply, and economic growth and financial stability in the Corn Belt depend on each other while competing for resources. In particular, recent increases in corn-based ethanol production in the region have increased interdependencies among food, energy and water (FEW) in the region and made the integrated FEW system more vulnerable to risks and threats. Among various concerns, phosphorus (a key component of fertilizers used in agriculture and a major pollution contributor to the "Dead Zones" in the Gulf of Mexico) plays a unique and under-recognized role within the FEW nexus. It is estimated that if recovered efficiently, the phosphorus (P) contained in ethanol coproducts, in-process stream, or wastewater in the US could recycle up to one-third of the fertilizer P needs of corn in the US while reducing water pollution. To help decision makers in Corn Belt watersheds address such interrelated challenges and opportunities, the PI team will develop an Integrated Technology-Environment-Economics Modeling (ITEEM) tool to be used to understand how changes in one sector may cause changes in other sectors. To identify and implement the most effective combinations of practices in different areas, policy makers will need new knowledge about technological, environmental, and economic aspects which will be incorporated into the ITEEM. The ITEEM will be used to compare whether and how different approaches to addressing problems and opportunities in the integrated FEW systems, including: i) recovering nutrients from grain processing and wastewater treatment facilities, ii) strategic integration of perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus, switchgrass) into annual grain landscapes for biofuel feedstock production and nutrient and sediment loss reduction, and iii) adjusting farm management practices that influence nutrient and sediment loss to surface water. The ITEEM will also be used by stakeholder communities of the food, energy and water sectors to identify and exploit strategies for enhancing watershed system sustainability.This project will conduct hypothesis-driven research activities for the development, dissemination and application of an integrated modeling tool (ITEEM) for Corn Belt watershed resilience analysis. Specific objectives include: 1) filling critical knowledge gaps in the interrelations between environment, technology and economics; 2) establishing the ITEEM tool for system resilience analysis; 3) testing ITEEM via multiple testbed studies that represent a range of FEW stressors across the Corn Belt; 4) fostering FEW nexus understanding in the Corn Belt via extension and education activities. The overall hypothesis is that the ITEEM approach will allow us to quantify the impacts of various nutrient management strategies and technologies, and to identify particular policies that are incentive compatible and enhance FEW system resilience in the Corn Belt. Both analytical (for generic integrated FEW systems) and numerical (for testbed watersheds in the Corn Belt) modeling analyses will be conducted to understand how watersheds respond to various types of threats subject to multi-source uncertainties, and address how FEW nexus relations influence watershed resilience. Potential early signals of critical transitions of watershed systems will also be evaluated from ITEEM simulations. Among the various strategies to enhance FEW system resilience, the role of such emerging technologies as phosphorus removal and recovery from process water and adopting perennial grasses for biomass production will be systematically assessed in terms of their environmental impacts and economic costs/benefits, as well as the extent the technologies can mitigate tradeoffs and enhance positive synergies in order to build more resilient FEW systems. Finally, a shared-vision modeling approach (SVMA) will be undertaken to incorporate researchers, extension experts, outreach working groups, and stakeholder representatives throughout the entire project for problem specification, model development and testing, and solution exploration.

玉米带的粮食生产、供水、水质、能源供应、经济增长和金融稳定在争夺资源的同时相互依赖。 特别是，最近该区域玉米乙醇生产的增加了该区域粮食、能源和水之间的相互依赖性，使综合的粮食、能源和水系统更容易受到风险和威胁的影响。在各种关切中，磷（农业中使用的肥料的关键成分，也是墨西哥湾“死亡区”的主要污染来源）在少数几个水资源关系中发挥着独特但未得到充分认识的作用。据估计，如果有效回收，美国乙醇副产品、过程中物流或废水中所含的磷（P）可以回收美国玉米肥料P需求的三分之一，同时减少水污染。为了帮助玉米带流域的决策者应对这些相互关联的挑战和机遇，PI团队将开发一个综合技术-环境-经济学建模工具，用于了解一个部门的变化如何导致其他部门的变化。为了确定和实施不同领域最有效的做法组合，政策制定者将需要有关技术、环境和经济方面的新知识，这些知识将被纳入项目环境管理。ITEEM将用于比较是否以及如何采用不同的方法来解决综合FEW系统中的问题和机会，包括：i）从谷物加工和废水处理设施中回收营养物质，ii）多年生草的战略整合（例如，芒草、柳枝稷等植物的营养物质和沉积物流失，以及iii）调整影响营养物质和沉积物流失到地表水的农场管理做法。 粮食、能源和水部门的利益攸关方社区也将使用该项目，以确定和利用加强流域系统可持续性的战略。该项目将开展假设驱动的研究活动，以开发、传播和应用玉米带流域复原力分析的综合建模工具（ITEEM）。具体目标包括：1）填补环境，技术和经济之间的相互关系的关键知识差距; 2）建立系统弹性分析的工具; 3）通过多个试验台研究，代表整个玉米带的一系列FEW压力源，测试ItemEM; 4）通过推广和教育活动，促进玉米带的FEW关系理解。总体假设是，项目的方法将使我们能够量化各种养分管理策略和技术的影响，并确定特定的政策，是激励兼容，并提高少数系统在玉米带的弹性。将进行分析（通用集成FEW系统）和数值（玉米带试验田流域）建模分析，以了解流域如何应对受多源不确定性影响的各种类型的威胁，并解决FEW关系如何影响流域恢复力。还将从ITEEM模拟中评估流域系统关键过渡的潜在早期信号。在各种战略，以提高少数水系统的弹性，磷去除和回收工艺用水和采用多年生牧草生物质生产等新兴技术的作用将系统地评估其环境影响和经济成本/效益，以及技术可以减轻权衡和提高积极的协同作用，以建立更有弹性的少数水系统。最后，将采用共享愿景建模方法（SVMA），将研究人员、扩展专家、外展工作组和利益相关者代表纳入整个项目，以进行问题规范、模型开发和测试以及解决方案探索。

项目成果

Addressing data challenges in riverine nutrient load modeling of an intensively managed agro‐industrial watershed

• DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13097
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
• 作者: S. Niroula;Kevin Wallington;Ximing Cai

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Phosphorus Loads in the Illinois River Basin, Illinois USA

美国伊利诺伊州伊利诺伊河流域磷负荷的时空变化

• DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13054
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
• 作者: McIsaac, Gregory F.;Hodson, Timothy O.;Markus, Momcilo;Bhattarai, Rabin;Kim, Daniel Chulgi
• 通讯作者: Kim, Daniel Chulgi

Modeling the Plantwide Implications of Struvite Loss from Sidestream Precipitation Reactors

• DOI: 10.1021/acsestengg.1c00404
• 发表时间: 2022-03
• 期刊: ACS ES&T Engineering
• 作者: Samuel E. Aguiar;Manying Zhang;Adrian Romero-Flores;Tom Johnson;R. Cusick

Evaluating the longevity of in-stream phosphorus legacies: A downstream cascade of recovery following point source remediation

评估河内磷残留的寿命：点源修复后的下游级联恢复

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168711
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Science of The Total Environment
• 影响因子: 9.8
• 作者: Wallington, Kevin;Cai, Ximing;Kalcic, Margaret
• 通讯作者: Kalcic, Margaret

Evaluating Long-Term Treatment Performance and Cost of Nutrient Removal at Water Resource Recovery Facilities under Stochastic Influent Characteristics Using Artificial Neural Networks as Surrogates for Plantwide Modeling

• DOI: 10.1021/acsestengg.1c00179
• 发表时间: 2021-09-09
• 期刊: ACS ES&T ENGINEERING
• 影响因子: 7.1
• 作者: Li, Shaobin;Emaminejad, Seyed Aryan;Cusick, Roland D.
• 通讯作者: Cusick, Roland D.