Planning for Drought Preparedness in the Watershed Context: A Risk-Based Decision Analysis

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This project aims at a lasting intellectual impact by developing a widely accepted model of drought risk that accounts for climate change, particularly the uncertainties involved in climate change prediction. The research activities will translate climate change predictions and uncertainties into useful information for drought preparedness planning in order to address a critical question of great societal importance: What does possible climate change imply for drought hazards, and how should society respond to it today? Today, concern over drought is widespread. On average, severe droughts hit 35-40 percent of the area of the United States in recent years and caused huge damages (many over $1 billion). Conventional drought management has focused on emergency response and post-impact analysis to drought events. It is time to place greater emphasis on preparedness planning, i.e., how should we prepare for future droughts that will probably be more frequent and severe? Preparedness planning is based upon risk mitigation and involves strategic measures, which are long-term and usually require capital investment. Moreover, from a scientific perspective, it is important for researchers to examine how drought events, in both the past and the future, are related to climate change. With such concerns in mind, this project seeks to improve drought risk assessment and decision making in infrastructure planning under an uncertain future that might be aggravated by climate change. Specific objectives of this project are to: 1) estimate the likely future drought risks under climate change, 2) understand the complementary relationships between long-term strategic and short-term tactical measures in drought risk mitigation, 3) test the effectiveness of practical technologies for drought preparedness, and 4) develop a ?fire drill?, also called a virtual drought exercise (VDE), using a hypothetical, computer-generated drought event to foster education for drought risk management. To achieve these objectives, the project will combine meteorological, hydrological, engineering and sociological research in order to provide information useful to craft strategic plans. The research will be applied to conjunctive surface and ground water management in the Kankakee Watershed in Illinois. It will address crop production loss and fish function damage, and the tradeoff between these two sectors during drought events.By providing scientifically-based, practically-relevant information on drought risk and mitigation measures, the project will help set the agenda for drought management policy examination and change by addressing problems and alternative solutions, with the ultimate goal of reducing drought damages. Furthermore, this project will provide technical and educational support for addressing issues of social equity, particularly the damage that drought causes for underrepresented groups. This will provide policy makers with information about the resulting gains and losses among stakeholders so that attention may be directed to groups that could possibly be under-represented in water allocation during drought.