Planning for Drought Preparedness in the Watershed Context: A Risk-Based Decision Analysis

流域的干旱防备规划：基于风险的决策分析

• 批准号: 0825654
• 负责人: Ximing Cai
• 金额: $ 32万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-08-01 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0825654&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Planning; Drought; Preparedness; Watershed; Context

This project aims at a lasting intellectual impact by developing a widely accepted model of drought risk that accounts for climate change, particularly the uncertainties involved in climate change prediction. The research activities will translate climate change predictions and uncertainties into useful information for drought preparedness planning in order to address a critical question of great societal importance: What does possible climate change imply for drought hazards, and how should society respond to it today? Today, concern over drought is widespread. On average, severe droughts hit 35-40 percent of the area of the United States in recent years and caused huge damages (many over $1 billion). Conventional drought management has focused on emergency response and post-impact analysis to drought events. It is time to place greater emphasis on preparedness planning, i.e., how should we prepare for future droughts that will probably be more frequent and severe? Preparedness planning is based upon risk mitigation and involves strategic measures, which are long-term and usually require capital investment. Moreover, from a scientific perspective, it is important for researchers to examine how drought events, in both the past and the future, are related to climate change. With such concerns in mind, this project seeks to improve drought risk assessment and decision making in infrastructure planning under an uncertain future that might be aggravated by climate change. Specific objectives of this project are to: 1) estimate the likely future drought risks under climate change, 2) understand the complementary relationships between long-term strategic and short-term tactical measures in drought risk mitigation, 3) test the effectiveness of practical technologies for drought preparedness, and 4) develop a ?fire drill?, also called a virtual drought exercise (VDE), using a hypothetical, computer-generated drought event to foster education for drought risk management. To achieve these objectives, the project will combine meteorological, hydrological, engineering and sociological research in order to provide information useful to craft strategic plans. The research will be applied to conjunctive surface and ground water management in the Kankakee Watershed in Illinois. It will address crop production loss and fish function damage, and the tradeoff between these two sectors during drought events.By providing scientifically-based, practically-relevant information on drought risk and mitigation measures, the project will help set the agenda for drought management policy examination and change by addressing problems and alternative solutions, with the ultimate goal of reducing drought damages. Furthermore, this project will provide technical and educational support for addressing issues of social equity, particularly the damage that drought causes for underrepresented groups. This will provide policy makers with information about the resulting gains and losses among stakeholders so that attention may be directed to groups that could possibly be under-represented in water allocation during drought.

该项目旨在通过开发一个被广泛接受的干旱风险模型，说明气候变化，特别是气候变化预测所涉及的不确定性，从而产生持久的知识影响。 研究活动将把气候变化预测和不确定性转化为抗旱规划的有用信息，以解决一个具有重大社会意义的关键问题：可能的气候变化对干旱危害意味着什么，今天社会应如何应对？今天，人们普遍对干旱感到担忧。平均而言，近年来严重干旱袭击了美国35%-40%的地区，造成了巨大的损失（许多超过10亿美元）。 常规的干旱管理侧重于对干旱事件的应急反应和影响后分析。现在是更加强调备灾规划的时候了，我们应该如何为未来可能更加频繁和严重的干旱做准备？ 备灾规划以减少风险为基础，涉及战略措施，这些措施是长期的，通常需要资本投资。 此外，从科学的角度来看，研究人员必须研究过去和未来的干旱事件与气候变化的关系。 考虑到这些问题，本项目力求在未来不确定的情况下，在基础设施规划中改进干旱风险评估和决策，而气候变化可能会加剧这种不确定性。 该项目的具体目标是：1）估计气候变化下未来可能的干旱风险，2）了解干旱风险缓解的长期战略和短期战术措施之间的互补关系，3）测试实用的抗旱技术的有效性，和4）开发一个？消防演习？也被称为虚拟干旱演习（VDE），使用假设的，计算机生成的干旱事件，以促进干旱风险管理的教育。 为了实现这些目标，该项目将联合收割机结合气象、水文、工程和社会学研究，以便为制定战略计划提供有用的信息。 该研究将应用于伊利诺伊州坎卡基流域的地表水和地下水联合管理。通过提供有关干旱风险和缓解措施的科学依据和实用信息，该项目将帮助制定干旱管理政策审查和改革议程，解决问题和替代解决方案，最终目标是减少干旱造成的损失。 此外，该项目将提供技术和教育支助，以解决社会公平问题，特别是干旱对代表性不足的群体造成的损害。这将为决策者提供有关利益攸关方之间的收益和损失的信息，以便注意干旱期间在水分配方面可能代表性不足的群体。