Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight

阿富汗、苏丹和伊拉克等地的动乱每年迫使数百万人背井离乡。国内流离失所者的困境已成为学术界和国际社会越来越多地讨论的话题。大多数关于被迫移徙的文献倾向于得出结论，流离失所是冲突的明显后果，人们逃离是因为他们别无选择。然而，这是一个过于简单化的结论。许多问题仍然没有答案，比如为什么有些人留下来冒着生命危险，而另一些人则逃离？在个人层面上，人们对那些选择留下来的人如何应对冲突知之甚少。此外，只有大约一小部分离家出走的人会回来。这又提出了其他问题，例如，为什么有些人在流离失所后不返回家园，在什么条件下他们能够重新安置到新的地点？目前的研究是由这样的谜题推动的。具体地说，为什么一些人即使面临极端暴力，也要留在原地，冒着生命危险，而另一些人则逃离？那些留下来的人是如何应对冲突的，当生命处于危险之中时，他们会做出什么选择？最后，是什么影响了流离失所者选择在他们迁徙的地方重新安置，返回家园，还是在逃亡后仍然处于不确定状态？2008年夏天，将对随机抽取的大约1500名尼泊尔公民进行面对面的民意调查，以收集初步数据并检验一系列假设，以解决上述问题。将使用多阶段研究设计来检验与内部位移相关的各种假说。研究的第一部分将使用Logistic回归模型来评估一些因素在解释个人选择方面的重要性，这些因素超出了对生命健康的威胁，例如经济机会和物质基础设施。在个人层面收集的原始数据将被用来了解对个人影响最大的因素？S在暴力冲突面前决定离开还是留在原地。在选择离开或留下的条件下，关于导致留在和离开的人产生多种可能结果的因素的各种假设将在第二阶段使用条件多项Logit模型进行检验。本研究将对正在进行的为理解强迫移徙奠定理论基础的努力作出重大贡献，并将产生重大的政策影响。利用在尼泊尔收集的主要数据，本研究将从现有的汇总分析转向微观层面的分析，并对强迫移徙的现有解释提供更微妙的检验。这项研究将提供第一次统计分析，提供个人一级的主要数据，重点是国内流离失所者，预计研究结果将具有足够的普遍性。这些数据将提供给其他研究人员，这将是对研究界的宝贵贡献。拟议的研究对尼泊尔的政策制定者以及国际社会也很重要。它将揭示人们离开家背后的原因？S决定离开家，并提供对解决这一问题的替代机制的见解，例如投资于创造经济机会、有形基础设施和其他应对方案。

Unrest in places such as Afghanistan, Sudan and Iraq forces millions of people from their homes every year. The plight of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has become an increasingly discussed topic in academia as well as in the international community. Most literature on forced migration tends to conclude that displacement is an obvious consequence of conflict and people flee because they have no choice. However, this is an oversimplified conclusion. Many questions remain unanswered, such as why do some people stay behind and risk their lives while others flee? Little is known at the individual level about how those who choose to stay cope with conflict. Furthermore, only around a fraction of those who leave home ever return back. This raises yet other questions, such as why do some people not return home after they are displaced and under what conditions are they able to resettle into their new locations? The present research is motivated by puzzles such as these. Specifically, why do some people, even when faced with extreme violence, stay put and risk their lives while others flee? How do those who stay cope with the conflict and what choices do they make when life is at risk? Finally, what affects the choices of displaced persons to resettle in the place to which they migrated, return home, or remain in limbo in the aftermath of flight? A face-to-face public opinion survey of around 1500 randomly selected Nepali citizens will be conducted during the summer of 2008 to collect primary data and test a series of hypotheses to address the above questions. A multi-stage research design will be used to test a variety of hypotheses related to internal displacement. A logistic regression model will be used in the first part of the research to assess the significance of a number of factors beyond the threat to physical integrity of life, such as economic opportunity and physical infrastructure in explaining individual choice. The primary data collected at the individual level will be used to understand the factors that contribute the most to an individual?s decision to leave or stay put in the face of violent conflict. Conditioned on the choice to leave or stay, a variety of hypotheses regarding factors that lead to multiple possible outcomes for those who stay and those who leave will be tested in the second stage using conditional multinomial logit models. The present research will make a significant contribution to the ongoing effort to develop a theoretical foundation for understanding forced migration, and will have significant policy implications. Using primary data collected in Nepal, the present study will move from existing aggregate analyses to a micro-level analysis and provide a more nuanced test of the existing explanations of forced migration. The study will provide the first statistical analysis with primary data at the individual level with a focus on IDPs and the findings are expected to be sufficiently generalizable. The data will be made available to other researchers and will be a valuable contribution to the research community. The proposed research will also be important to policy makers in Nepal as well as the international community. It will shed light on the reasons behind people?s decisions to leave home and offer insights into the alternative mechanisms available for dealing with this problem, such as investment in creating economic opportunities, physical infrastructure and other coping alternatives.