Analysis of Global Atmospheric Responses to Externally and Internally Driven Global Circuit Variability

先前资助的研究表明，北半球冬季气旋的强度随着全球大气电路中电流流（Jz）的变化而变化，由太阳风引起的几个独立的外部发电机驱动。外部驱动因素是宇宙射线通量的变化，在太阳风磁扇区边界交叉点（现在称为日光层电流片或HCS交叉点，与几天的低太阳风速度周期有关）处沉淀的相对论电子通量的减少；还有太阳质子事件。研究还表明，南极和北极的地表压力对穿透极地冰盖的太阳风电场有反应。两个极帽的压力响应是相反的，因为每个极帽对太阳风电场的Jz响应是相反的。另一个结果是，7个北极站和11个南极站的地面压力在几个hPa的水平上对全球环流内部发生器（低纬度、高电气化的对流云）的日常变化有响应。观测结果与一个概念模型一致，即Jz在层云顶部与液滴浓度梯度相关的电导率梯度中沉积正电荷，在层云底部沉积类似的负电荷，符合高斯定律。这种电荷附着在液滴和气溶胶粒子上，包括云凝结核（CCN）和冰形成核（IFN），并影响这些粒子和其他气溶胶粒子被云滴清除的速度，并可能导致云量、降水和大气辐射平衡的变化。该项目将把研究扩展到南半球，检查南半球的气象数据，以检验与Jz变化有关的气旋变异性。对太阳风速度的观测将检查速度的下降，这将表明相对论性电子沉淀引起的变化，正如概念模型所建议的那样，而不是日球层电流片交叉，以提高对这些联系的理解。另一个组成部分是利用20年来更近的数据，重新检查对福布什星系宇宙射线通量减少的气象响应。该概念模型将用于预测由于Jz内部变化引起的冬季风暴涡度，以及云量和降水变化的响应。这些由层云中电荷引起的大气动力学变化目前都没有包括在全球预报或气候模式中。该项目的结果是，根据对主要产生区雷暴活动的预报和对影响Jz的空间天气的预报，可以改进冬季风暴强度的日常预报。

Previous funded research has shown that the strength of winter cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere varies with changes in the current flow (Jz) in the global atmospheric electric circuit, driven by several independent external generators due to the solar wind. The external drivers are changes in cosmic ray flux, reductions in precipitating relativistic electron flux at solar wind magnetic sector boundary crossings, (now called heliospheric current sheet, or HCS crossings, that are associated with periods of several days of low solar wind speed); and solar proton events.The research also showed that surface pressure in both the Antarctic and Arctic responds to the solar wind electric field that penetrates into the polar caps. The pressure responses are opposite in the two polar caps, following the opposite Jz responses to the solar wind electric field in each polar cap. Another result was that the surface pressures in 7 Arctic stations and 11 Antarctic stations show responses at the level of a few hPa to the day-to-day changes in the internal generators of the global circuit (low latitude, highly electrified convective cloud). The observational results are consistent with a conceptual model in which Jz deposits positive charge in the conductivity gradients associated with droplet concentration gradients at the tops of layer clouds, and deposits negative charge similarly at the bases of such clouds, in accordance with Gauss's Law. This charge attaches to droplets and aerosol particles, including cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice forming nuclei (IFN) and affects the rate at which these and other aerosol particles are scavenged by cloud droplets, and can lead to changes in cloud cover, precipitation, and the atmospheric radiation balance. This project will extend the research to the southern hemisphere by examining meteorological data for the southern hemisphere to test for cyclone variability related to Jz changes. Observations of the solar wind speeds will be examined for decreases in the speed which will indicate changes induced by relativistic electron precipitation, as suggested by the conceptual model, rather than heliospheric current sheet crossings, to improve the understanding of these links. Another component is to re-examine the meteorological responses to Forbush decreases of the galactic cosmic ray flux, using 20 years of more recent data. The conceptual model will be used to predict the vorticity of winter storms due to internally generated changes in Jz, as well as the responses of cloud cover and precipitation changes. None of these changes in atmospheric dynamics induced by electric charge in layer clouds are currently included in global forecast or climate models. As a result of this project, day-to-day forecasts of winter storm strength may be improved, based on forecasts of thunderstorm activity in the main generating regions, and forecasts of space weather, that affect Jz.