Study of Solar-Variability-QBO-Weather Relations in the Context of Variations in Cosmic Rays Fluxes and Storm Intensification

越来越多的资料提供了强有力的证据，表明气旋扰动和对流层顶高度的急流随11年的太阳周期和赤道平流层风的准两年一次的振荡而变化。已经发现了对磁暴、太阳风扇区边界和太阳耀斑的短期响应，这些可以作为对流层和平流层下层太阳变率载体有效性的诊断。在太阳耀斑相关的高速等离子体流（HSPS）发生后的两天内，对流层顶气压和对流层垂直温度廓线的变化是一种新的短期响应。在银河宇宙射线是太阳变率的主要载体的背景下，这种效应是可以理解的。这笔拨款将支持在银河宇宙射线作为太阳变异性的主要载体的背景下，与太阳变异性/QBO/天气效应相关的数据分析工作。将检验宇宙射线通量的时间变化，特别是能量范围为0.3至3 GeV的时间变化是否足够，以解释观测到的短期和长期太阳变率对对流层和平流层下层的影响。将分析在化学/气溶胶载体背景下平流层微小成分变化对对流层QBO变化的影响。这项工作应提供对流层/平流层响应的几种可能机制的限制，特别是那些涉及云微物理的电和化学影响的机制，以及与潜热释放和风暴加强的可能联系。

An accumulating body of data has provided strong evidence that cyclonic disturbances together with the jet stream at tropopause altitudes vary in response to the 11 year solar cycle and to the quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric winds (the QBO). Short term responses to magnetic storms, solar wind sector boundaries, and solar flares have been found, and these can be examined as diagnostics on the effectiveness of carriers of solar variability to the troposphere and lower stratosphere. A new short term response has been found in the form of changes in tropopause pressure and vertical temperature profile in the troposphere in the two days following solar-flare- related high-speed plasma streams (HSPS). This effect is made understandable in the context of galactic cosmic rays being the main carrier of the solar variability. This grant will support a data analysis effort relevant to Solar Variability/QBO/Weather effects in the context of the galactic cosmic rays being the main carrier of the solar variability. Tests will be made of the adequacy of the time variations of the cosmic ray flux, particularly for the energy range 0.3 to 3 GeV, to account for the observed short term and long term solar variability influences on the troposphere and lower stratosphere. An analysis will be made of variations in stratospheric minor constituent variations in the context of chemical/aerosol carriers for the tropospheric QBO variation. The work should provide constraints on several possible mechanisms of troposphere/stratosphere response, particularly those involving electrical and chemical effects on cloud microphysics, and on possible links to latent heat release and storm intensification.