Equatorial Wave Reflection and Equatorial Warm Water Volume

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。厄尔尼诺Niño和南方涛动（ENSO）的动力学和预测的基础是赤道太平洋暖水量（WWV）的变率。该WWV的变化领先或滞后主要ENSO指数几个月，最近的研究表明，低频海洋能量在东太平洋和西太平洋边界的反射在WWV模态动力学中起着基本作用。但是东太平洋边界的反射，特别是赤道以南边界上El Niño信号的衰减，尚不清楚。这种衰减大大减少了从东边界到达西边界的能量，并应深刻地影响赤道WWV的振幅。这项工作的主要目标是观察和了解热带太平洋东部边界附近的年际流动。卫星高度计和海岸潮汐计数据将用于记录和了解热带东太平洋的年际海岸流。特别是，理论和卫星估计的涡旋变率将用于检验年际沿海信号的沿岸行为，特别是它在5S以南的衰减，是否可以用已知起源于边界附近的涡旋造成的能量损失来解释。作为分析的一部分，将阐明观测到的低频赤道洋流的动力学，并在东太平洋研究它们在预测ENSO方面的可能效用。多年来，PI将他对ENSO的研究成果纳入了他的课程作业和书籍中，他计划在这个项目中继续这项活动。他还将指导一名女性初级科学家进行研究和撰写科学论文。实现本提案中的目标将增进对ENSO的了解，它极大地影响农业、水资源、渔业、飓风和野火的次数、加热/制冷的能源需求以及某些地区饥荒和疾病的流行。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Fundamental to the dynamics and prediction of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the variability of the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV). Variations in this WWV both lead and lag major ENSO indices by several months and recent research suggests that the reflection of low-frequency ocean energy at the eastern and western Pacific Ocean boundaries plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of the WWV mode. But the reflection at the eastern Pacific Ocean boundary, particularly the decay of the El Niño signal along the boundary south of the equator, is not understood. This decay greatly reduces the energy that reaches the western boundary from the eastern boundary and should profoundly affect the amplitude of the equatorial WWV. This work's main goal is to observe and understand the interannual flow near the eastern tropical Pacific boundary. Satellite altimeter and coastal tide gauge data will be used to document and understand the tropical eastern Pacific interannual coastal flow. In particular, theory and satellite-estimated eddy variability will be used to test whether the alongshore behavior of the interannual coastal signal, especially its decay south of 5S, can be explained by energy loss due to eddies which are known to originate near the boundary. As part of the analysis the dynamics of the low-frequency observed equatorial currents will be elucidated and, in the eastern Pacific, their possible utility in predicting ENSO will be examined.Broader impactsOver the years the PI has incorporated his research results on ENSO in his course work and books and he plans to continue this activity in this project. He will also mentor a female junior scientist in conducting research and writing scientific papers. Achievement of the goals in this proposal will lead to increased understanding of ENSO which greatly influences agriculture, water resources, fisheries, the number of hurricanes and wildfires, energy needs for heating/cooling and the prevalence of famine and disease in certain regions.