Multiple Tiered Methodology for Micro- to Macro-Scale Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (M4-PHEVs)

[853766] PI计划开发M4-PHEV，这是一种新的多层方法，用于微观到宏观评估插电式混合动力汽车（PHEV）的直接和间接能源使用和排放（EU&amp；E）。该框架将使用一致的数据和协调的方法，在高空间和时间分辨率下，以及在区域和国家尺度上，对插电式混合动力汽车（phev）的能源使用和排放进行准确评估。欧盟的影响将包括化石燃料（汽油、柴油）、生物燃料（乙醇、生物柴油）和电力的消耗。主要目标是：(1)开发和展示一种新的多尺度建模方法框架，将传感器数据与微尺度模型联系起来，并将微尺度输出与能源系统模型输入联系起来；(2)在高时空分辨率下建立插电式混合动力汽车能源使用和排放的微观模型，明确考虑汽油、柴油、乙醇和生物柴油四种汽车燃料；(3)利用MARKAL能源系统模型提供插电式混合动力汽车在美国市场渗透情景下的能源使用和排放的稳健、定量特征。他们将开发一种新的方法，用于使用便携式排放测量系统（PEMS）收集和分析插电式混合动力汽车每秒钟的活动、能源使用和排放。他们将量化汽车能耗如何在发动机和电池系统之间波动，作为外部可观察因素（如道路类型、速度、加速度、道路坡度和环境条件）的函数。PHEV燃料和电力使用的详细模型将推导出来。这些模型将在时间和空间上分配能源使用和尾气排放。我们将说明电荷耗尽和电荷维持模式。我们将以我们最近的工作为基础，使用PEMS量化生物柴油与石油柴油的效果，以及乙醇与汽油的效果，以评估生物燃料插电式混合动力车。微型模型可以将插电式混合动力车与之前开发的传统车辆微型模型进行比较，以量化插电式混合动力车在特定现实条件下的边际影响。宏观方法将采用市场分配（MARKAL）能源系统模型，代表美国9个地区，以评估插电式混合动力车对电力和燃料的需求如何影响车辆和发电技术的选择、整个经济的最终用电需求、资源利用和区域排放。他们将通过五点传播计划与学生、公众、从业者、决策者、国际合作者和研究人员分享这项工作的成果，以实现这项工作的更广泛影响。本研究的主要假设是：(a)对插电式混合动力汽车的微观影响进行定量计算，可以提高能源使用和排放模型的准确性和精度；(b)这些模型可以综合起来，为车队和更长的时间尺度制定准确和精确的EU&amp；E估计；(c)多尺度的建模框架不仅可以量化一辆插电式混合动力汽车取代一辆传统汽车的边际效应，还可以量化整个系统对资源利用和能源结构二次转变的影响，包括使用生物燃料和化石燃料的插电式混合动力汽车的影响。与传统汽车相比，插电式混合动力车将以不同的方式使用能源，并且间歇性地排放尾气。它们的大规模部署将导致交通运输和发电能源部门的复杂耦合。此外，插电式混合动力车直接和间接排放的时间和地点对于准确量化局部空气质量影响至关重要。该项目将为以下方面提供新的方法和数据：(a)更精确地估计微型车辆特定的EU&amp；E，以支持改进排放清单的编制；(b)制定一致的框架，以估算不同时空尺度上的欧盟能源消耗；(c)改善交通改善计划（TIPs）的评估基础；(d)改善EU&amp；E的实时评估和管理基础。这项工作将影响参与研究的本科生和研究生，并将通过详细的传播计划与公众、从业者和其他人分享。

0853766FreyThe PI plans to develop M4-PHEV, a new Multiple-tiered Methodology for Micro- to Macro-scale assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) direct and indirect energy use and emissions (EU&E). This framework will enable accurate assessment of the energy use and emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) at high spatial and temporal resolution, as well as at regional and national scales, using consistent data and coordinated approaches. The EU&E impacts will account for consumption of fossil fuels (gasoline, diesel), biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel), and electricity. The main objectives are to: (1) develop and demonstrate a new methodological framework for multi-scale modeling that links sensor data to micro-scale models, and micro-scale outputs to energy system model inputs; (2) create micro-scale models of PHEV energy use and emissions at high spatial and temporal resolution with explicit consideration of four vehicle fuels: gasoline, diesel, ethanol, and biodiesel; and (3) use the MARKAL energy systems model to provide a robust, quantitative characterization of PHEV energy use and emissions under U.S. market penetration scenarios. They will develop a new methodology for real-world field data collection and analysis of second-by-second activity, energy use, and emissions of PHEVs using portable emission measurement systems (PEMS). They will quantify how vehicle energy consumption fluctuates between the engine and battery systems as a function of externally-observable factors such as roadway type, speed, acceleration, road grade, and ambient conditions. Detailed models of PHEV fuel and electricity use will be derived. The models will allocate energy use and tailpipe emissions in time and space. We will account for charge depleting and charge sustaining modes. We will build upon our recent work, using PEMS to quantify the effect of biodiesel versus petroleum diesel, as well as ethanol versus gasoline, to assess biofueled-PHEVs. The microscale models will enable comparison of PHEVs with previously developed microscale models for conventional vehicles in order to quantify the marginal impact of PHEVs under specific real-world conditions. The macro-scale approach will feature the use of a MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with a 9-region representation of the U.S. in order to assess how the demand for electricity and fuels by PHEVs affects choices among vehicle and power generation technologies, end-use electricity demand across the economy, resource utilization, and regional emissions. They will share results of this work, via a 5-point dissemination plan, with students, the public, practitioners, decision-makers, international collaborators, and researchers to enable realization of the broader impacts of this work. The key hypotheses of this work are: (a) quantitatively accounting for vehicle-specific micro-scale impacts of PHEVs enables development of energy use and emissions models with improved accuracy and precision; (b) such models can be aggregated to develop accurate and precise estimates of EU&E for vehicle fleets and longer time scales; and (c) a modeling framework at multiple scales enables quantification of not only the marginal effects of one PHEV in place of one conventional vehicle, but the system-wide implications for resource utilization and secondary shifts in energy mix, including the impacts of PHEV use of biofuels versus fossil fuels. PHEVs will use energy differently and emit tailpipe emissions intermittently compared to conventional vehicles. Their wide-scale deployment will lead to the complex coupling of the transportation and power generation energy sectors. In addition, the timing and location of direct and indirect emissions from PHEVs is critical to the accurate quantification of localized air quality impacts. This project will provide new methods and data for: (a) more precise estimates of micro-scale vehicle-specific EU&E to support improved emission inventory development; (b) development of a consistent framework for estimating EU&E at different temporal and spatial scales; (c) enabling an improved basis for evaluation of transportation improvement programs (TIPs) and (d) an improved basis for real-time estimation and management of EU&E. This work will impact undergraduate and graduate students who participate in the research, and will be shared with the public, practitioners, and others via a detailed dissemination plan.