Collaborative Research: Diamonds and Oil from the Tundra: A System Study on the Impact of Changing Seasons on Mining and Oil Exploration

摘要：自然资源开采是北极经济的支柱。石油和天然气勘探和生产税占阿拉斯加州的88%。2008财年为美国提供了102亿美元的收入。此外，该行业还为阿拉斯加创造了4400个直接就业岗位和37344个间接就业岗位。在加拿大，石油和天然气对经济也至关重要，但钻石开采也是如此，2007年西北地区的钻石开采总值为20亿美元。因此，加拿大是世界上第三大钻石生产国。这些矿场雇佣了大约4000人，其中大约35%是土著居民。这些北极地区的石油、天然气和采矿活动主要发生在远离全天候道路系统的偏远地区，因此大量使用替代形式的燃料、设备和人员运输。在阿拉斯加，石油勘探是在冬季进行的，根据该州的规定，需要有足够的冰雪来保护冻土带。在加拿大，卡车载着成千上万的货物沿着600公里的冰路为钻石矿提供燃料和材料。这些基本的冬季作业取决于可预测的季节转换（夏季到冬季；冬季到夏季）和冰冻圈条件，但数据表明，春季解冻比50年前提前了3周，湖泊和河流的冰也比以前更早破裂。这些季节性变化已经对北方的矿产和石油/天然气活动产生了不利影响，对当地和北方经济产生了涓滴效应。目前还没有进行正式的基于经济的分析，以评估季节模式的变化对北方这些重要产业的影响。这项研究将进行一项试点工作，以确定回答这个问题的方法，以及两个辅助问题：冰冻圈季节性的预期变化可能如何影响未来十年的经济表现？是否有适应性策略可以降低这些关键工业部门对未来变化的敏感性？这项试点工作将侧重于季节变化如何影响加拿大在西北地区的钻石开采作业，通过改变可以利用冰路的可靠时期，增加开放时期的可变性，以及不确定性的经济后果。在这里，他们将使用综合经济和冰冻圈模型来检验季节长度对区域经济的影响。研究人员将观察如何在实地收集环境数据，监管机构如何利用这些数据做出决策，以及企业如何在其运营中权衡气候影响与其他因素。基于这些研究，研究小组将从其他因素中分离出气候驱动的季节变化的影响。该项目的结果将是关于气候驱动的季节变化在多大程度上影响冰路使用的明确信息。更一般地说，它将是一种方法（包括建模），用于区分独特的北方企业的气候驱动因素和非气候驱动因素。

Abstract:Natural resource extraction is the backbone of the arctic economy. Oil and gas exploration and production taxes account for 88% of the State of Alaska?s revenue, providing $10.2 billion in fiscal year 2008. In addition, 4,400 direct and 37,344 indirect Alaskan jobs are due to this industry. In Canada, oil and gas are also crucial to the economy, but so too is diamond mining, with a total value of diamond extraction in the Northwest Territories of $2 billion in 2007. As a result, Canada is the 3rd largest diamond producer in the world. The mines employ about 4,000 people, roughly 35% of whom are Aboriginal. These arctic oil, gas, and mining activities occur predominantly in remote locations off the all-weather road system, so alternate forms of transport of fuel, equipment, and people are heavily used. In Alaska, oil exploration occurs in winter under state regulations that require sufficient snow and frost to protect the tundra. In Canada, trucks take thousands of loads up a 600-km ice road to supply the diamond mines with fuel and material. These essential winter operations hinge on predictable seasonal transitions (summer-to-winter; winter-to-summer) and cryospheric conditions, but data indicate the spring thaw comes as much as 3 weeks earlier than 50 years ago, and lake and river ice break up earlier than before. These seasonal shifts are already having an adverse impact on minerals and oil/gas activities in the North, with a trickledown impact on local and Northern economies. No formal economic-based analysis has been done to assess how changing seasonal patterns are impacting these vital industries of the North. This research will conduct a pilot effort to identify means of answering this question, as well as two ancillary questions: How are anticipated changes in cryosphere seasonality likely to affect such economic performance in the next decade? and Are there adaptive strategies that can reduce the sensitivity of these key industrial sectors to future changes?This pilot effort will focus on how changing seasons impact the Canadian diamond mining operations in the Northwest Territories through alteration of the reliable period when ice roads can be utilized, increased variability of that open period, and the economic consequences of uncertainty. Here they will use combined economic and cryospheric models to examine the impact of season length on the regional economy. Researchers will observe how environmental data are collected in the field, how they are utilized by regulatory agencies to make decisions, and how businesses weigh climate impacts with other factors in their operations. Based on these studies, the team will isolate the impact of climate-driven changes in seasons from the other factors. The outcome of the project will be explicit information on the extent to which climate-driven changes in seasons are affecting ice road use. More generally, it will be a methodology (including modeling) of how to distinguish climate drivers from non-climate drivers for uniquely Northern businesses.