Collaborative Research: The Seasonal Response of the Arctic and Global Climate System to Projected Sea Ice Loss within the Context of GHG-induced Climate Change

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。该项目的主要目标是调查在人为气候变化的背景下气候系统对北极海冰损失的季节性反应的机制。这项研究将利用NCAR社区气候系统模型第4版（CCSM 4），这是一个完全耦合的全球大气-海洋-冰冻圈-陆地模型，具有陆地和海洋碳-氮循环能力。这一拟议努力的总体目标是调查海冰损失与温室气体上升对北极过程季节性演替和时间变化的相对作用。这将涉及旨在评估季节性海冰损失对海洋、陆地和大气系统各方面影响的研究，特别强调响应的季节性依赖性。这项工作将包括一系列有针对性的灵敏度整合，以隔离感兴趣的过程。这些实验将在现有观察结果的范围内进行评价。该项目还将评估这些不同过程的综合影响，以及它们如何反过来反馈到北极海冰变化的季节性。北极系统目前和预计的变化对全球气候系统、北极野生动物和该地区的社会经济活动产生影响。提高我们对影响北极系统内季节性时间和过程连续性的因素的理解和建模，将有助于提高北极和全球系统的可预测性。这对社会预测、缓解和适应未来变化的能力有直接影响。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The primary goal of this project is to investigate the mechanisms underlying the seasonal response of the climate system to Arctic sea ice loss within the context of anthropogenic climate change. This research will utilize the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), which is a fully coupled global atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-land model with terrestrial and oceanic carbon-nitrogen cycling capabilities. The overarching goal of this proposed effort is to investigate the relative roles of sea ice loss versus rising greenhouse gases for changes in the seasonal succession and timing of Arctic processes. This will involve research designed to assess the influence of seasonal sea ice loss on aspects of the marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric systems, with a particular emphasis on the seasonal dependence of the responses. This work will include a series of targeted sensitivity integrations to isolate processes of interest. These experiments will be evaluated within the context of available observations. This project will also assess the integrated effects of these various processes and how they in turn feed back onto the seasonality of Arctic sea ice change. Current and projected changes in the Arctic system have repercussions for the global climate system, Arctic wildlife, and socio-economic activities in the region. Improving our understanding and modeling of the factors affecting the seasonal timing and succession of processes within the Arctic system will allow for improved Arctic and global system predictability. This has a direct impact on the ability of society to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to future change.