Quantifying the influence of environmental temperature on transmission of vector-borne diseases

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)资助的。气候变化有可能影响影响数百万人生活的病媒传播疾病的动态和分布。然而，由于传播和环境参数之间的关系不明确，我们量化风险的能力有限；目前，气候模型的分辨率和疾病模型的参数都不足以让我们了解实地的实际情况。因此，该项目的中心目标是量化环境温度如何影响媒介传播疾病的传播，以及这反过来如何决定现在和未来气候变化情景下的疾病风险。为了实现这一总体目标，该项目将：(1)评估实际温度变化对确定疾病传播的关键昆虫学/流行病学过程的影响；(2)将最先进的全球气候模型预测缩小到区域一级；(3)利用这些具有生物学意义的缩小气候模型预测，并将它们与新的从经验得出的生物数据结合起来，开发机械流行病学模型，以量化环境温度对疾病动态在时间和空间上的影响。制定政策以预防或减少疾病动态变化的影响，需要更好地了解区域气候变化和气候控制对疾病的性质，以及这些因素如何与其他环境和社会经济因素相互作用。该项目将为整合社会科学、自然科学和自然科学的更广泛的气候和环境变化计划奠定基础。然后，这些成果可用于更好地向社会通报气候和疾病之间的联系，并制定适当的预防、控制和适应做法。更广泛的影响。该项目包括面向普通公众和利益攸关方的外联活动，并包括继续参与政府间气候变化专门委员会的活动。建议的培训和指导是在本科生、研究生和博士后水平上进行的，妇女和少数民族的参与将通过参与妇女参与科学和工程研究(WISE)和少数民族本科生研究经验(MURE)计划来最大限度地发挥作用。该项目涉及的基本问题广泛，受过该计划培训的科学家将很好地将技能转移到许多社会和经济利益领域(如家畜和野生动物疾病、农业、渔业和保护)。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Climate change has the potential to affect the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases that impact the lives of millions of people. However, our ability to quantify risk is limited due to the poorly-specified relationship between transmission and environmental parameters; at present neither the resolution of the climate models nor the parameterization of the disease models is sufficient to inform us what the actual situation will be on the ground. The central aim of this project, therefore, is to quantify how environmental temperature influences the transmission of vector-borne diseases, and how this in turn determines disease risk both now and under future climate change scenarios. To address this overall aim, the project will: (i) evaluate the effect of realistic temperature variation on the key entomological/epidemiological processes that determine disease transmission; (ii) down-scale state-of-the-art global climate model projections to the regional level; and (iii) take these biologically meaningful down-scaled climate model predictions and combine them with the novel empirically-derived biological data to develop mechanistic epidemiological models to quantify the effects of environmental temperature on disease dynamics over time and space. Developing policies to prevent or reduce the impact of changing disease dynamics requires a much better understanding of both regional climate change and the nature of the climate controls on the disease, as well as how these intersect with other environmental and socio-economic factors. This project will set the foundations of a wider program in climate and environmental change integrating the social, physical and natural sciences. These outputs can then be used to better inform society of the links between climate and disease and to develop appropriate practices for prevention, control, and adaptation. Broader impacts. This project includes outreach to both the general public and to stakeholders, and includes continued participation in the activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The training and mentoring proposed are at the undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral levels, and participation of women and minorities will be maximized through participation in Women in Science and Engineering Research (WISE) and Minority Undergraduate Research Experience (MURE) programs.The fundamental issues addressed by this project are broad and scientists trained in this program will be well placed to transfer skills into many areas of social and economic interest (e.g. domestic animal and wildlife diseases, agriculture, fisheries and conservation).