High-resolution climate modeling: The influence of weather and sea ice noise on polar climates

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。该项目将使用一种建模技术来研究天气和海冰噪声对极地气候的影响，该技术已广泛应用于研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动，但从未用于高纬度地区，也从未以高分辨率进行过研究。这种方法被称为交互集合（IE），将集合平均应用于大气，在这个项目中，在海冰与海洋和陆地交换之前，也应用于海冰。IE方法消除了高频大气和海冰变率对海洋和陆地的影响，并隔离了气候系统中耦合的内在变率。这些整合将以非常高的分辨率进行，以更好地解决湍流涡旋等物理过程及其在平均气候和气候变率中的作用。高分辨率的IE作为一种季节性或年度预报技术具有很大的前景，因为它消除了由于未解决的空间尺度和不可预测的天气和海冰噪声而产生的不确定性。IE方法将应用于三个基本问题。第一个是量化北极大气和海冰覆盖的季节性到年际可预测性，当它们与仅具有内在变率的海洋相结合时。第二是确定高纬度大气变率的特征，如环状模态，是如何与海洋和陆地的内在变率相耦合的。第三是研究大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的变率如何依赖于大气天气和海冰噪声。更广泛的影响包括社会和政府对高纬度地区区域预测的日益增长的需求。它们在北极尤其重要，那里的气候变化已经在快速发生，海冰的年际变化似乎也在增加。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). This project will investigate the influence of weather and sea ice noise on polar climates using a modeling technique that has been applied extensively to study the El Nino Southern Oscillation but never before to high latitudes and never at high resolution. The method, known as an interactive ensemble (IE), applies ensemble averaging to the atmosphere, and, in this project, to sea ice fields before they are exchanged with the ocean and land. The IE approach eliminates the influence of high-frequency atmospheric and sea ice variability on the ocean and land, and isolates the coupled intrinsic variability in the climate system. The integrations will be conducted at very high resolution to better resolve physical processes such as turbulent eddies and their role in the mean climate and climate variability. The IE at high resolution holds great promise as a technique for seasonal to annual forecasts as it eliminates uncertainty owing to unresolved spatial scales and unpredictable weather and sea ice noise. The IE approach will be applied to three fundamental problems. The first is to quantify seasonal to interannual predictability of the Arctic atmosphere and sea ice cover when coupled to an ocean with intrinsic variability alone. The second is to determine how characteristics of high-latitude atmospheric variability, such as the annular modes, are coupled to intrinsic variability in the ocean and land. The third is to investigate how variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) depends on the atmospheric weather and sea ice noise. Broader impacts involve the growing need that society and government have for regional predictions in high northern latitudes. They are especially important in the Arctic, where climate change is already taking place at a fast pace and interannual variability in the sea ice appears to be growing as well.