A Study of the Economic Impacts of the 2009 U.S. Stimulus Package and Its Science Policies

与信息技术相关的全要素生产率(即创新)的增长解释了1995年后美国生产率增长的四分之三以上是基于增强的生产函数框架的发现。这项研究扩展了这一框架和相关的理论和经验模型(分类的马歇尔宏观经济模型)，除包括十个工业部门和政府部门外，还包括科学、卫生和教育部门。该方法结合了价格理论和宏观经济理论的原理来考察整体经济的行为。一项重要的修改是纳入了公司进入和退出。该研究还调查了不同的包装成分对短期、中期和长期绩效指标的影响。智力上的优点：几乎没有理论基础来分析刺激计划对科学、健康和教育的影响。该项目将价格理论和宏观经济理论结合起来，以提供一个迫切需要的理论和经验框架，在此框架内审查科学投资的效果。新的方法是，研究明确包括一个科学部门，该部门生产产出信息和其他产品，不仅包括通常的劳动力、资本和货币服务投入，还包括投入信息。更广泛的影响：这项研究扩大了过去的证据，即美国经济的分类模型在解释和预测方面比广泛使用的聚合模型更有效。显然，如果模型不能很好地解释和预测，它们在制定货币、财政和其他政策方面就不那么有用了。这项工作将考虑各种一揽子政策的影响，以展示这些政策不仅影响整个经济，而且影响特定部门的短期和长期。这些分析的结果，加上它们计算出的“误差幅度”，可能会对政策制定者大有用处。

The finding that information-technology?related increasesin total factor productivity (i.e., innovation)explained more than three-quarters of the post1995 increase in U.S. productivity growth is based on an enhanced production function framework. This research expands that framework and a related theoretical and empirical model (a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model) to include science, health and education sectors in addition to the ten industrial and government sectors. The approach combines principles of both price theory and macroeconomic theory to examine the behavior of the overall economy. An important modification is the inclusion of firm entry and exit. The research also investigates the effects of varying the composition of the package on measures of short run, intermediate run and long run performance. Intellectual Merit: There is little theoretical basis upon which to build analyses of the effects of the stimulus package on science, health and education. This project combines price theory and macroeconomic theory to provide an urgently needed theoretical and empirical framework within which to examine the effect of science investments. The novel approach is that the research explicitly include a science sector that produces output information and other products with not only the usual inputs of labor, capital and money services but also input information. Broader Impact: This research expands past evidence that a disaggregated model of the U. S. economy works better in explanation and prediction than aggregated models that are in widespread use. Clearly, if models do not explain and predict very well, they are less useful in making monetary, fiscal and other policies. The work will consider the impact of various policy packages to demonstrate how the policies affect not only the entire economy but also specific sectors in both the short run and the long run. The results of these analyses, together with their computed "margins of error", are likely to be of great use to policy-makers.