Collaborative research: The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion/recovery on Antarctic Climate

摘要数据分析和模拟项目力求量化由于平流层臭氧的恢复在未来一个世纪对南极气候造成的变化。由于预计《蒙特利尔议定书》将减少消耗臭氧的卤素排放，季节性的极地臭氧层空洞现在显示出复苏的迹象。目前东南极(EA)大部分地区缺乏明显的全球变暖影响，人们认为部分原因是平流层冷却，部分原因是每年连续发生的臭氧消耗事件。由于平流层冷却导致的极地涡旋陡峭，伴随着环绕大陆的西风增强，这反过来又减少了南半球变暖带来的经向热量传递。当这种平流层冷却被移除时，EA的更强升温是可能的。将审查一系列当前全球气候模型的产出，看它们是否有能力再现最近的南极气候条件。这些是否可以可靠地归因于单一因素，如臭氧或其他(混合良好的)温室气体，可能使人们能够更好地估计未来南极的气候反应。南极气候变化，特别是沿海边缘表面融化的变化，对下个世纪的冰盖物质平衡和全球海平面上升具有重要的潜在影响。

AbstractA data analysis and modeling project seeks to quantify the changes acting on Antarctic climate over the coming century attributable to the recovery of stratospheric ozone. Anticipated as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol to reduce ozone depleting halocarbon emissions, the seasonal polar ozone holes are now showing signs of recovery. The current lack of a discernable global warming effect on much of the East Antarctic (EA) is thought to stem from stratospheric cooling in part brought about by successive annual ozone depletion events. A steepening of the polar vortex due to stratospheric cooling is accompanied by a strengthening of the westerly winds that circle the continent, which in turn lessens the meridional heat transfer from a warming Southern Hemisphere. As this stratospheric cooling is removed, a stronger warming of the EA is possible. A range of current global climate model outputs will be examined as to their ability to reproduce recent Antarctic climate conditions. Whether these can be reliably attributed to a single factor such as ozone or other (well mixed) greenhouse gases may enable future Antarctic climate responses to be better estimated. Antarctic climate variability, especially with respect to surficial melt at the coastal margins has important potential impacts on ice sheet mass balance and global sea-level rise in the coming century.