Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery and Antarctic Climate Change

南极的气候变化及其若干全球性后果（例如，与南极冰盖表面质量平衡相关的海平面上升）通常被归因于温室气体（GHG）强迫的上升。臭氧，特别是平流层中的臭氧，是另一种重要的辐射气体，其过去的人为耗竭也对气候产生影响，例如春季极夜急流的增强。温室气体浓度将在本世纪剩余时间内继续上升，而在《蒙特利尔议定书》之后，平流层臭氧预计将恢复，从而给南半球的环流趋势留下一些不确定性。臭氧变化与南极气候的四个方面，即：1)南极表面温度，2)云量，3)海冰和冰盖物质平衡之间的联系将通过一系列地球系统模式实验进行研究。将使用两种不同类型的模式，第一种是化学-气候耦合模式，即全大气群落气候模式（WACCM）。第二个将是一个独立的冰盖模型，冰盖系统模型（ISSM），它将与WACCM运行的大气场相结合。仅改变大气温室气体（GHG）量的模拟将进一步允许比较未来臭氧和温室气体的气候影响。这些大规模的气候影响也具有直接的社会和经济利益。南极气候和环境变化与碳的生物地球化学循环、海洋环流和全球海平面上升有关，具有深远的影响。后者与社会高度相关，因此了解南极气候变化的原因

Climate change in the Antarctic, along with its several global consequences (e.g. sea-level rise associated with surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet) are often attributed in terms of rising greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. Ozone, especially that residing in the stratosphere, is another radiatively important gas whose past anthropogenic depletion also has climate consequences e.g. intensification of the polar night jet during spring. GHG concentrations will continue to rise over the remainder of this century, whereas stratospheric ozone is expected to recover, following the Montreal Protocol, leaving some uncertainty in the resulting circulation trends in the Southern Hemisphere. Linkages between ozone change and four aspects of Antarctic climate namely: i) Antarctic surface temperatures, ii) cloud cover, iii) sea-ice and ice-sheet mass balance will be investigated by a series of earth systems model experiments. Two different types of models will be utilized, the first being a coupled chemistry-climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The second will be a stand-alone ice sheet model, the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), which will be forced with the atmospheric fields from the WACCM runs. Simulations that only vary atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) amounts will further permit comparison between future ozone and GHG climate effects. These large scale climate effects are also of direct societal and economic interest. Antarctic climate and environmental change has far reaching impacts through its ties to biogeochemical cycling of carbon, ocean circulation and global sea level rise. The latter are highly relevant to society, and thus understanding the causes of Antarctic climate change