DMUU: Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy

随着越来越多的政府承认气候变化的存在，许多政府正在系统地评估减少温室气体排放的政策行动。与此同时，公用事业公司、私营企业、州和地方政府等各种团体正在估计与减缓、适应或破坏有关的潜在成本，以及气候变化和替代政策的潜在效益。所有这些决定将对经济产生数万亿美元的影响。如此重大的决策应该基于最好的分析工具。这些工具不可避免地必须基于计算模型，因为需要分析系统的复杂性来预测可能的未来状态，识别潜在的意外后果，并理解对不确定性的敏感性。这个跨学科合作小组将开发和传播工具，帮助个人和组织在气候政策引起的短期经济混乱和气候变化的长期后果方面做出更明智的决策。该小组的主要产品将是CIM-EARTH，这是一个强大而灵活的模型组件框架，可用于帮助回答各种政策分析中的问题。CIM-EARTH框架的核心将是一个开源的、动态的、一般均衡模型。该框架的体系结构将利用高性能计算和数值方法，使评估比现有代码更详细的模型成为可能。该小组将着重加强主要能源生产和消费部门的代表性，以及资本投资和技术发展等动态过程。该小组工作的另一个关键组成部分将是表征任何复杂系统中固有的多种不确定性。CIM-EARTH将由新成立的气候与能源政策稳健决策中心（DMCEP）开发，该中心将由代表多个机构和国家的经济学、能源技术、能源系统、气候建模和计算科学方面的专家组成。如果决策者要充分了解在政策设计和选择中要权衡的因素，强有力的决策研究是至关重要的。虽然现有的模型提供了一些指导，但它们的缺点限制了它们的实际应用。该小组将生产用于分析复杂系统的下一代计算模型，特别强调代表经济系统的模型组件的进步。CIM-EARTH被期望为开源建模创建一个新的标准，鼓励社区用户和贡献者的参与。此外，通过结合计算机体系结构、数值方法和经济建模方面的最新进展，CIM-EARTH将增强对其他具有类似复杂性的计算模型具有巨大价值的方法。该合作小组项目由美国国家科学基金会社会、行为和经济科学理事会通过其不确定决策制定（DMUU）竞赛提供支持。

As additional governments are acknowledging the existence of climate change, many are systematically evaluating policy actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Simultaneously, various groups like utilities, private-sector firms, and state and local governments are estimating the potential costs related to mitigation, adaption, or damage and the potential benefits of climate change and alternative policies. All of these decisions collectively will have economic impacts measuring into the trillions of dollars. Decisions of such magnitude should be based on the best possible analysis tools. Such tools inevitably must be based on computational models because of the complexity of the system of systems that need to be analyzed to project possible future states, identify potential unexpected consequences, and understand sensitivity to uncertainty. This interdisciplinary collaborative group will develop and disseminate tools to help individuals and organizations make more informed decisions relating both to short-term economic dislocations induced by climate policies and to long-term consequences of climate change. The group's primary product will be CIM-EARTH, a powerful and flexible framework of model components that can be used to help answer questions across a wide range of policy analyses. At the core of the CIM-EARTH framework will be an open-source, dynamic, general equilibrium model. The architecture of this framework will leverage high-performance computing and numerical methods that enable the evaluation of far more detailed models than existing code. The group will focus on enhanced representation of key energy producing and consuming sectors and on dynamic processes, such as capital investment and technology development. Another key component of the group's work will be the characterization of multiple types of uncertainty inherent in any complex system. CIM-EARTH will be developed in the newly created Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy (DMCEP), which will be staffed by experts in economics, energy technologies, energy systems, climate modeling, and computational science who represent multiple institutions and countries.Robust decision-making research is critical if policymakers are to fully understand the factors to be weighed in policy design and choice. While there are existing models that provide some guidance, they have shortcomings that limit their practical utility. This group will produce next-generation computational models for analyzing complex system of systems, with specific emphasis placed on advances in model components that represent economic systems. CIM-EARTH is expected to create a new standard for open-source modeling that encourages the participation of a community users and contributors. In addition, by incorporating recent advances in computer architecture, numerical methods, and economic modeling, CIM-EARTH will enhance methodologies that will be of tremendous value to other computational models with similar complexity. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) competition.