Workshop on Modeling the Financial Crisis from the Bottom Up

传统的金融和宏观经济模型已被证明在预测、限制或补救当前的金融低迷方面用处有限。本次研讨会的重点是复杂性理论的替代方案，以取代传统的广义随机一般均衡宏观经济模型。具体而言，将着重介绍在国家一级建立大规模分布式经济现象模型的基于代理人的方法。与会者将讨论基础研究的优先事项，以最快地朝着有用的模型取得进展，并探索协调发展下一代经济模型的计划。与会者将来自经济学和金融学、计算机科学和多主体系统、物理学，以及公共和私营部门的模型用户。即使我们的经济建模能力略有提高，也会对更好的政策制定和更稳健的经济产生宝贵的影响。此外：适用于经济的复杂性建模的方法学进步也将有助于对其他重要的复杂实体进行建模，如政治系统、组织系统和系统。

Conventional financial and macroeconomic models have been demonstrated to be of limited utility in either forecasting, limiting, or remedying the current financial downturn. This workshop will focus on complexity-theoretic alternatives to traditional DSGE macroeconomic models. Specifically, agent-based approaches for building large-scale, distributed models of economic phenomena at the country-level will be highlighted. Attendees will discuss priorities for basic research to make progress toward useful models most expeditiously and explore plans for coordinating to develop next-generation modeling of economies. Participants will come from economics and finance, computer science and multi-agent systems, and physics, as well as public and private sector model users.Even a slight improvement in our ability to model the economy would have valuable implications for better policy making and mroe robust economies. Also: methodological advances in complexity modeling that apply to economies will also be useful for modeling other important complex entities, like political systems, organizational systems, and systems.