The Sciences of Ice and the West Antarctica Problem: Geophysics, Glaciology, and Geology, 1945-present

冰川科学和西南极问题：地球物理、冰川学和地质学，1945年-威廉·托马斯介绍美国物理研究所，马里兰大学公园物理史中心摘要本项目考察了西南极冰盖(WAIS)的研究历史，将其置于南极洲和其他地方地球物理、冰川学和地质学领域的其他当代研究的背景下。自1970年代以来，WAIS引起了特别的科学兴趣，因为它位于海平面以下的基岩上，这表明WAIS可能天生就容易在几个世纪的时间尺度上解体。这将导致海平面上升约5米。最初之所以提出这种可能性，是因为人们认为WAIS的解体可能会在地球的长期气候周期中发挥作用。自1980年左右以来，人们一直担心人类活动导致的加速气候变化可能会引发或加速这种解体。在此基础上，WAIS的解体问题推动了专门研究计划的建设(主要由国家科学基金会资助)，举办了专门针对该主题的研讨会和会议，并将WAIS的研究纳入气候变化评估，例如由政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)进行的评估。WAIS快速解体的可能性的提出，以及随后对其可能性和时间尺度的调查，涉及整合不同的科学研究传统，包括对地球气候历史的地质重建，对管理这一历史的机制的建议，对冰行为的实地调查，以及构建冰行为的数学和计算机模拟模型，所有这些都已与致力于研究全球气候变化的更广泛的研究计划相结合。该项目将研究这些科学研究领域的整合方式，将每一领域与不同的传统联系起来，并将通过出版物和网络资源提供成果。

The Sciences of Ice and the West Antarctica Problem: Geophysics, Glaciology, and Geology, 1945-presentWilliam ThomasAmerican Institute of Physics, Center for History of PhysicsCollege Park, MarylandAbstract This project examines the history of research on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), placing it in the context of other contemporary research in the fields of geophysics, glaciology, and geology in Antarctica and elsewhere. Since the 1970s, WAIS has been of special scientific interest because the fact that it rests on bedrock below sea level suggests the possibility that WAIS could be inherently vulnerable to disintegration on a time scale of centuries. This would lead to rises in sea level of approximately five meters. This possibility was initially raised because it was thought that WAIS disintegration might play a role in the planet's long-term climate cycles. Since about 1980, it has been feared that accelerated climate change due to human activity might trigger or hasten such a disintegration. On this basis, the question of WAIS disintegration has motivated the construction of special research programs (funded largely by the National Science Foundation), the holding of workshops and conferences dedicated to the subject, and the integration of WAIS research into climate change assessments, such as those conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The proposal of the possibility of rapid WAIS disintegration, and the subsequent investigation of its likelihood and timescale, have involved the integration of disparate traditions of scientific research, including the geological reconstruction of the Earth's climate history, the suggestion of mechanisms governing that history, the field investigation of ice behavior, and the construction of mathematical and computer-simulated models of ice behavior, all of which have also been integrated with broader research programs dedicated to the study of planet-wide climate change. This project will study the ways these lines of scientific research have been integrated, contextualizing each line as arising from a distinct tradition, and will make results available via publications and a web resource.